China’s Victory Day Parade: symbolic or seismic?

Beijing would like the week to mark a historic turning point in which a unipolar world finally gave way to multipolarity. To others, it was just tub-thumping bravura. In reality, it was a bit of both.

Barbara Gibson

China’s Victory Day Parade: symbolic or seismic?

With the sun setting on a week in China that drew world leaders to Beijing, analysts are pondering the significance of the occasion on several levels, not least economic and diplomatic. Was this the week that the world turned a page?

Almost half a century ago, the bipolar world of the Cold War (1945-1990) gave way to a unipolar world in which the United States was the dominant power. Yet the slow rise of China, the regrouping of Russia, and their growing alliance has led to recent talk of the US-led unipolarity giving way to a multipolar world in which Beijing can go toe-to-toe with Washington. From 31 August to 3 September, that was the intended message.

Convening for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Tianjin, China’s President Xi Jinping and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin were joined by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was a scene of bonhomie and brotherly hugs, as much a show of defiance to the West as anything else, just days after US President Donald Trump announced 50% tariffs on India because New Delhi has been buying Russian oil, thus funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

More than optics?

Following that was the 80th anniversary of World War II and China’s victory against Japan, celebrated with a full-scale military parade through Beijing. To some, this represented more than ceremonial diplomacy and military optics; it represented a changing global system, in which the organising principles of human rights, liberal democracy, and free markets give way to civilisational identities, developmental imperatives, and strategic autonomy.

China has patiently built strategic partnerships and economic interdependencies around the world, not least in mainland Asia and its ‘near abroad’. This has led to an increasing number of countries signing on to Beijing’s narratives, including over Taiwan. Was this week in China—with world leaders and ballistic missiles—the natural culmination? Was it the day that China finally announced that there was a new sheriff in town?

 AFP
Indian PM Narendra Modi and China President Xi Jinping shake hands during the welcome ceremony of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin on August 31, 2025.

One of the most consequential developments of recent days was the apparent rapprochement between China and India, two civilisational powers and leading economies representing 2.8 billion people.

Beijing and New Delhi have not always seen eye-to-eye, with border disputes leading to fatal military clashes in recent years, so Modi’s first visit to China in seven years was therefore significant not just for their bilateral relations but for American strategy in Eurasia.

Have Trump's tariffs driven India into Chinese arms? It looks that way. Photos of Xi, Modi, and Putin chatting and laughing during the SCO summit spoke volumes. While the Atlantic powers wrestle over the fate of Ukraine, here was a demonstration of geopolitical gravity. The China-Russia-India trio represent more than 20% of the world's landmass, three times more than the United States. Yet in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), the US economy is still much bigger than all three put together, as is its annual military spending.

India will be mindful of this. For 20 years, US policy has assumed that India's democratic values and China's territorial ambitions would create natural frictions, as evidenced by the occasional military flare-up. Yet the emergence of shared Indian and Chinese interests would appear to blur the picture. Modi's moves are less about ideology than about preserving strategic autonomy in an increasingly polarised world.

When Xi and Putin were joined by India's Modi, it was a scene of bonhomie and brotherly hugs, as much a show of defiance to the West as anything else

Economic considerations

Underlying the public relations are economic projects, not least in the energy sector, where the signing of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline agreement between Russia and China is noteworthy. Once completed, it will deliver up to 50 billion cubic metres of Russian natural gas annually to China for 30 years at market prices. Energy partnerships of this magnitude create irreversible strategic dependencies. Unlike trade in manufactured goods or commodities, energy infrastructure links nations through investments that span decades, creating mutual vulnerabilities that transcend political cycles.

The original Power of Siberia pipeline, completed in 2019, showed how energy flows can restructure strategic relationships. From Moscow's perspective, it became an essential economic lifeline after European markets closed in 2022, following its invasion of Ukraine. This costs Moscow more than 120 billion cubic metres of gas sales annually, but once the second pipeline is complete, the combined Siberian flow should replace most of these European losses.

For Beijing, the pipeline provides energy security through safe borders by reducing dependency on the potentially vulnerable Strait of Malacca (which the US Navy could close, in the event of any US-China conflict). The pipeline's route through Mongolia also extends Chinese influence into Central Asia, traditionally a Russian sphere.

The broader implications relate to the gradual decoupling of global energy markets from Western financial systems. Russia and China are developing alternative payment systems and pricing structures which, in time, will let other nations reduce their exposure to dollar-denominated transactions and therefore reduce their susceptibility to Western sanctions. This may be of increasing interest to New Delhi.

Mustafa Kamaci / AFP
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife, Emine Erdogan, arriving in Tianjin Airport, to attend the 25th Heads of State Council meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) on August 31, 2025.

Strategic partnerships

For decades, NATO member Türkiye has had a foot in both camps. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's attendance at the SCO summit, as the only NATO member to do so, was seen by some as a reflection of the need for change, at least as perceived in Ankara. Erdogan is open to full SCO membership but has no intention of relinquishing his country's NATO membership. This could either present a conundrum or provide a model for diversified strategic relations, depending on one's perspective.

For Ankara, partnership exclusivity does not provide for maximum leverage. Moreover, its geographical position as an east-west bridge between civilisational blocs means that it is well-placed to mediate conflicts and facilitate communication in ways that other (exclusively-aligned) countries could not.

Türkiye's SCO involvement may not sit comfortably with some NATO members, who feel threatened by Russian aggression. The principle of collective defence does not exclude members maintaining parallel relationships with strategic rivals, but it does introduce potential tensions within the alliance. To those commentators eager to usher in a new China-centric world order, such tension is indicative of today's multipolarity.

REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov
A member of the People's Liberation Army stands as the strategic strike group displays DF-5C nuclear missiles during a military parade to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, in Beijing, China, September 3, 2025.

On the military front, Beijing's victory parade showcased China's most advanced weapons, the display of which could be read as a simple message: China has the means to wage war and will deploy them if necessary. Alongside Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin was North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, whose small nuclear arsenal is growing. This trio are united by shared opposition to American hegemony.

The parade's underlying narrative was equally important. China played a crucial role in defeating Japanese imperialism in the 1940s and, consequently, in shaping the post-war order. President Xi was keen to stress this, thereby advancing China's role in history with a strategic purpose. The implication was clear: China was instrumental in creating the existing international system and has the power and influence to create a new one.

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