Can the Lebanese army disarm Hezbollah?

The aftershocks of Iran's regional setback are still being felt across the region. In Lebanon, this manifested politically through the election of President Joseph Aoun and the formation of a government led by Nawaf Salam. But can these changes be translated into concrete realities, or will they turn out to be purely cosmetic?

Herein lies the challenge. Half a century since Lebanon's devastating 15-year civil war, the country has been presented with a rare opportunity to reassert the state's authority, which had steadily eroded over the past few decades.

Foreign pressure

For Israel, Hezbollah's disarmament is non-negotiable, especially after the group began its "supportive war" against Israel shortly after the October 7 Hamas attack. But despite a ceasefire reached with the group, Israel continues to occupy Lebanese land in the south and carry out strikes against Hezbollah targets across the country.

For its part, the US has proposed a plan for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from land they occupy in  Lebanon's south, but has conditioned it on a string of demands that include: Hezbollah disarmament, the demarcation of the Lebanon-Syria border, among other things.

Washington has also pegged Lebanon's economic revival and reconstruction on the government's ability to reassert its political and military authority. It wants to see Hezbollah abandon its "resistance" posture and transition into a regular party sans arms.

To this end, post-Assad Syria looks likely to play a key role in helping the Lebanese state reclaim its eroded authority—a goal President Aoun and his government have pledged to achieve by year's end.

During a media briefing I attended with several other journalists at the presidential palace in Damascus, President Ahmed al-Sharaa declared his intention to turn a new page with Lebanon, pointing to the favourable opportunity to do so following "the serious losses suffered by Iran and its axis".

On an official state visit to Beirut later this month, Syria's new leader is expected to reaffirm his respect for Lebanese sovereignty and support for border demarcation aimed at curbing extremism and drug trafficking. In fact, the border demarcation process has already begun, and significant progress has been made in dismantling smuggling and drug trafficking networks.

For its part, Iran is working to restore Hezbollah's military capabilities and has emphasised that any moves to disarm the group would constitute a red line. While it understands that Hezbollah can probably no longer serve as a deterrent to prevent Israel from striking Iran directly, it still wants to maintain its influence in Lebanon and regain its foothold in Syria.

Lebanon's army now faces a critical test. Is it willing and capable of confronting Hezbollah militarily in a bid to disarm the group, or will such an attempt spread division among its ranks? Given Hezbollah's categorical refusal to lay down its arms, the immediate future looks bleak.