You might think it would be impossible for the inferno in Israel and Gaza to burn hotter. Yet Benjamin Netanyahu is fuelling three parallel emergencies: a humanitarian one in Gaza, a torching of support among European allies and a constitutional crisis over who controls the security services, army and courts.
The pressure on Israel and its institutions is almost unbearable, and a culminating moment is probably imminent. But whether that comes in the form of a re-invasion of Gaza which finally ruptures Israel’s alliances and fractures its armed forces and society, or through a U-turn or ceasefire that triggers the prime minister’s political demise, remains dangerously unclear.
Start with Gaza, where the Israeli army is poised to launch the main phase of a devastating new campaign. Under the plan, the Israeli army would retake 75% of it, pushing 2 million people into zones on 25% of the land.
The probable outcome is a further humanitarian catastrophe. To counter that charge, Israel’s government says it can get aid to Palestinians without giving Hamas tacit control of it. On 26 May, Israel launched a distribution network, using “hubs” to hand out weekly rations.
The next day, thousands of hungry people mobbed the area, and work was suspended. Aid groups say the plan is woefully insufficient. Jake Wood, the head of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which runs the network, has just resigned, citing the principles of “humanity, neutrality, impartiality, and independence.”
The strikes and apparent futility of any re-invasion are causing a rethink in Europe, which has been broadly supportive of the war against Hamas following the atrocities of 7 October 2023. Britain has suspended talks on a new trade deal, and 17 members of the EU, Israel’s largest trade partner, want to re-examine their association agreement.
On 27 May, Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, called the civilian deaths “abhorrent”.The day before, Friedrich Merz, the German chancellor and a staunch supporter of Israel, said, “The current level of attacks on Gaza can no longer be justified.” Germany may limit military exports or restrict their use: it sold 33% of Israel’s arms imports during 2020-24. That would mark a huge shift for Israel’s indispensable European ally.
Even the White House is queasy. On 25 May, President Donald Trump said he would like “to stop that whole situation as quickly as possible”. He is keen to try to strike a deal between America and Iran.
Read more: Turning tides? Israel's allies are finally criticising its war on Gaza
As Israel starves Gaza and allies bail, Netanyahu is throwing petrol on a third crisis: a constitutional crunch with the security services, army and courts. He says he will appoint a messianic general as the chief of the Shin Bet, the domestic security service. Along with the Israeli army, Netanyahu has tried to blame it for being caught unawares by Hamas.
For his part, Ronen Bar, the outgoing Shin Bet boss, has accused Netanyahu of dodging his own responsibility, of trying to have the service do his political dirty work, and of firing him to cover up allegations of corruption within the prime minister’s office. After a battle in the Supreme Court, which ruled in his favour, Bar will step down of his own accord on 15 June.
The replacement is Major-General David Zini, an infantry commander who will thrill the prime minister’s hard-right base. Even his Israeli army comrades see him, a scion of a nationalistic-rabbinical family, as messianic. Recently, he warned of “the intention of bad Muslims to kill good Jews ever since Ishmael was born and until further notice” (some Jewish traditions name Ishmael, the eldest son of the biblical patriarch Abraham, as the forefather of the Arabs).
In a meeting of the Israeli army general command, he is reported to have opposed any prisoner exchange with Hamas since “this is an eternal war”. As Shin Bet chief, he would have a role in authorising which Palestinians Israel would release. His position on the war runs counter to that of most Israelis, who want a ceasefire and release of the remaining 20-odd living hostages.
The attorney-general, Gali Baharav-Miara, had told the prime minister that before replacing Bar, he must wait for legal guidelines, but Netanyahu has ploughed ahead. The Shin Bet is tasked with protecting Israel’s leaders. Netanyahu is on trial for charges of bribery and fraud, which he denies, and is set to be cross-examined for the first time in a few weeks. He has in the past tried to get the Shin Bet to limit his court appearances for “security reasons”. A new chief may be amenable to such requests.
