Unpacking Netanyahu's predictably self-serving return to war

Israel’s coalition government contains far-right parties that do not want to see an end to the bloodshed in Gaza, so it is no surprise that bombs have started falling again

A Palestinian man hugs the body of a baby following Israeli overnight airstrikes in the northern Gaza Strip, at the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahia, on March 20, 2025.
BASHAR TALEB / AFP
A Palestinian man hugs the body of a baby following Israeli overnight airstrikes in the northern Gaza Strip, at the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahia, on March 20, 2025.

Unpacking Netanyahu's predictably self-serving return to war

After a 58-day ceasefire and a halt in military operations between Israel and Hamas, Israel resumed its air strikes at dawn on Tuesday, 18 March, with no prior warning. The stated pretext was to pressure Hamas’s negotiating delegation into the unconditional release of half the Israeli detainees in its custody. Israel estimates that Hamas still holds 59 Israelis, 28 of whom are dead.

The resumption saw both wide-scale bombing and targeted assassinations across more than 100 sites. On only the first day of the war's resumption, Gaza’s Ministry of Health reported more than 400 killed, including 174 children, 89 women, and 32 elderly residents.

Two members of the Hamas political bureau—Yasser Harb and Muhammad al-Jamasi—were killed in strikes on their homes, along with Issam al-Daalis, head of the group’s governmental work committee, who had survived an earlier Israeli assassination.

Undersecretary of the Ministry of Justice Ahmed al-Hatta and Undersecretary of the Interior Ministry Maj. Gen. Mahmoud Abu Watfa, both members of the Hamas cabinet, were also killed, as was Director-General of the Internal Security Agency Maj. Gen. Bahjat Abu Sultan. Since Tuesday, strikes have continued, with at least 700 killed, including over 200 children, in the short span of three days.

BASHAR TALEB / AFP
A Palestinian woman reacts as people check the bodies of the victims of Israeli overnight airstrikes in the northern Gaza Strip at the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahia on March 20, 2025

Flimsy claim

Many have questioned the true motivations behind Israel’s decision to resume military operations and assassinations, with doubts about claims that the strikes were unplanned. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assertion—that he and his cabinet ordered the offensive solely to pressure Hamas into returning to negotiations and releasing detainees—doesn't hold water.

Previously, Hamas and Israel had reached an agreement on a ceasefire and prisoner exchange that came into effect on 19 January, following a 470-day genocidal Israeli military campaign.

The deal—brokered with help from Egyptian, Qatari, and American mediators—began with the implementation of its first phase, which lasted 42 days and went considerably smoothly. During this period, Hamas and other Palestinian factions released 33 detainees, including eight bodies, while Israel released around 1,900 Palestinian prisoners—many of whom were being held without charge.

The agreement allowed for the entry of humanitarian aid trucks and the limited evacuation of patients from Gaza, although the number of those allowed to travel fell short of what had been agreed. Israel also partially withdrew its forces from city centres and refugee camps to border areas within the Gaza Strip.

According to the agreement, a complete withdrawal and further prisoner exchanges were due to follow in the second phase, but Israel delayed negotiations for this phase, then demanded an extension of the first phase. Hamas said no, insisting both sides move to phase two.

On the first day alone, Israel killed more than 400, including 174 children, 89 women, and 32 elderly Palestinians

Foot-dragging and non-compliance

Israel's foot-dragging didn't go unnoticed. Observers and analysts noted this looked like it had no intention to start negotiating for Phase 2, which, according to the ceasefire agreement reached, should have begun on the 16th day of the first day. 

Instead, Netanyahu stalled, allowing fewer and fewer humanitarian aid trucks in than had been agreed and only a few Egyptian bulldozers to clear roads and remove debris. In addition, far fewer injured or sick Palestinians were allowed to leave via the Rafah Crossing for treatment than had been stipulated.

Hamas repeatedly raised objections and urged mediators to press Israel to fulfil its commitments, yet Israel's pattern of minimal compliance was repeated in what seemed like an effort to get the largest number of hostages without having to initiate a full withdrawal. 

Throughout, Israel has had the full support of the US. President Donald Trump even suggested forcibly relocating Palestinians from Gaza to Jordan, Egypt, or other countries, pointing to the scale of destruction and arguing that reconstruction was impossible without mass displacement.

 These remarks were accompanied by explicit threats to Hamas, demanding the immediate release of all detainees in one batch and giving Israel the green light to take whatever military action it wanted if Hamas failed to do so.

Extension proposal

As phase two approached, there was a proposal by US Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff to extend the first phase by more than a month. During this extension, half of the hostages held by Hamas would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners, and border crossings would stay open for aid. 

When Hamas rejected the proposal, the US gave the nod to Israel for further punitive measures. These included cutting off electricity to Gaza, including a single power line that supplied the desalination plant in Deir al-Balah. 

Read more: Israel appears to end Gaza ceasefire with US backing

As of the beginning of March, Israel also closed the border crossings to aid and commercial trucks, allowing only 50 people (patients and their companions) out per day through the Kerem Shalom crossing, as reports suggested that Hamas's al-Qassam Brigades had begun re-arming.

Additionally, Hamas government officials and cadres resumed their duties in enforcing security and control within the Gaza Strip, an indication that Hamas was solidifying its continued rule. It showed that an Israeli war aim—the complete destruction of Hamas—had not yet been met.

During the ceasefire, the Israeli army and its Shin Bet domestic intelligence agency continued gathering intelligence on Hamas's political and military leadership, as well as key government figures. Eyal Zamir, Israel's new Chief of Staff, had ordered increased surveillance.

Israel's foot-dragging didn't go unnoticed. Observers noted it looked like it had no intention to start talks for Phase 2.

A report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) in September detailed Israel's use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and precision surveillance technologies to compile a bank of around 37,000 targets. According to HRW, Israel uses tools to track the mobile phones of Palestinians in Gaza, generate lists of buildings to be attacked, and assign ratings to human targets based on their suspected affiliation to armed groups.

One AI software, grotesquely called 'Where's Daddy', is designed to kill Palestinian militants when they return home to their families. Data gathered from these tools played a central role in the recent large-scale aerial bombardment of the Gaza Strip, according to Ibrahim Rabayeh, a professor at Birzeit University in the West Bank. 

Read more: A look at Israel's AI-generated 'mass assassination factory' in Gaza

Political motives

Beyond military considerations, Netanyahu has political motives to resume the bombardment. By the end of March, his coalition government must pass a national budget in the 120-seat Knesset (parliament) with at least 61 votes. 

Failure to do so would collapse the government and trigger an election, the first since Israeli intelligence and security failures gave room for Hamas militants to carry out its October 7 attack that led to the deaths of more than 1,000 Israelis. Netanyahu is determined to avoid a vote in which the public would be expected to hold him to account for that.

REUTERS/Oren Ben
Netanyahu and Itamar Ben Gvir shake hands as the latter is reappointed minister of National Security in the Knesset on March 19, 2025.

His governing coalition is fragile. In January, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir resigned in protest against the ceasefire agreement with Hamas. Just hours after Israel resumed bombing, his Otzmah Yehudit party rejoined the governing coalition, and he was reinstated as a minister.

Netanyahu bowed to his demands: that war be resumed with full force, that all aid to Gaza be halted, and that steps be taken towards Trump's forced displacement plan.

At every turn, Netanyahu has proven he would do anything to keep his coalition government intact—even if that means resuming his genocidal war and putting Israeli hostages' lives at even greater risk.

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