Politics

Japan’s view of the disorder gripping the world today

The bonds between Japan and the Middle East are based on trust and respect, since both seek peace and stability in the region. In these newly dangerous times, that bond is even more important.

Cat-O'Neil

Japan’s view of the disorder gripping the world today

Futoshi Matsumoto

last update on 26 May 2025

I came back to Tokyo late last year after having served in Baghdad as Japan's ambassador to Iraq. It was a great relief to return home after several long stints in Iraq, New York, Beirut, Damascus, and Amman over the past nine years.

I should have felt relaxed in Japan, but I sensed a strange feeling of anxiety hovering in the Tokyo air, a sense of deepening insecurity in the world that is affecting this peaceful Japanese society. Living in Japan used to mean peace and security of the kind lacking in many other parts of the world. It was a luxury of stability, but this may now have ended, as global crises and conflicts become intertwined.

China militarism

The biggest security challenge for Japan over the past decade was posed by the military rise of China, most visible in the bold activism of Chinese maritime expansion, from its navy to coast guard and even maritime militias disguised as Chinese fishermen appearing in the vicinity of Japan’s Senkaku islands.

The People’s Liberation Army’s Air Force now challenges Japan’s Air Self-Defence Force by flying into Japanese airspace, while the PLA’s Rocket Force aims more than 4,000 missiles at Japan at any one time, should a conflict arise. If reports are true, China’s nuclear arsenal of around 500 nuclear warheads will increase to over 1,000 by 2030.

Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is increasingly vocal about his intention to invade Taiwan. US military analysts have even suggested a date: 2027. China's army, navy and air force have expanded their military exercises near Taiwan.

TAIWAN COAST GUARD / AFP — A Taiwanese coast guard ship (R) monitoring a Chinese coast guard ship, a few nautical miles from Taiwan's northeastern coast on December 12, 2024.

Its coast guards have felt sufficiently emboldened as to check Taiwanese boats sailing between Taiwan and Taiwan's Kinmen Island, 10km east of the city of Xiamen in Fujian, in mainland China. Since Japan hosts more than 50,000 US forces (mainly in Okinawa Islands, the country's most southerly islands), any military conflict concerning Taiwan affects Japan's security.

Ukraine war

Although distant, the war in Ukraine still affects Japan. Since the Russian invasion, Japan has advocated for the critical importance of the rule of international law. This is especially important, given the increasingly precarious situation in Asia, in view of China's unlawful maritime activities in the East China Sea and South China Sea. Fumio Kishida, who served as Japan's prime minister from 2021-24, said: "Today's Ukraine is tomorrow's Asia," in reference to any invasion of Taiwan by China.

The Japanese were struck by the sudden appearance of thousands of North Korean soldiers fighting alongside the Russians against the Ukrainians. This shows a worrying new military alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang, with regular military exercises being conducted between Russia and China around Japanese islands.

Antagonistic tariffs

Yet the greatest shock to hit Japan recently was not military, but economic, with a 24% increase of the US tariff measures announced by President Donald Trump last month, plus an additional 25% for vehicles, vehicle parts, steel, and aluminium. These US tariffs are forecast to cause Japan’s GDP growth to fall by at least 0.7%. In particular, it will hit Japan’s automotive sector, which employs more than 5.5 million workers.

The US, where 1.37 million Japanese cars were sold in 2024, is the largest export market for Japanese cars in the world. Japan’s car exports to the US constitute around a third of all Japanese products exported to the US. US tariffs targeting third countries—like Canada and Mexico—seriously disrupt the supply chains of Japanese auto manufacturers that have invested in these countries to export Japanese cars from there to the US market.

US tariffs could cause Japan's GDP growth to fall by at least 0.7% and hit its automotive sector, which employs more than 5.5 million workers

Japan has been the top foreign investor in the US in recent years and is a trusted and close ally, so the Japanese people were surprised that such antagonistic tariffs would come from a friendly state. It feels like the liberal economic order that was led by the US and that had prevailed since World War II is now nearing its end.

Adding to the concern, Southeast Asian countries had much higher tariffs imposed. Cambodia faces tariffs of 49%, Vietnam 46%, and Thailand 37%. The worry is that these states will now be increasingly attracted to authoritarian states such as China, which will use the tariffs to pose as the protector of the liberal economic order.

Middle East security

Listing the signs of danger and disorder could make the Japanese people doubt whether the peace and security that we have enjoyed in this part of the world is sustainable. We are not used to instability, not like regions such as the Middle East, which can often seem exposed to constant conflict. We may need to learn from the flexibility and adaptability of the Middle Eastern people in managing crises.

The overall situation in the Middle East is a concern to Japan because Japan imports almost all of its oil from the region (97%), energy supplies that are even more important after a long freeze in the usage of nuclear power plants following the tsunami that struck Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, resulting in its meltdown.

The Houthis' attacks on ships included a couple that were operated by large Japanese companies, such as the Galaxy Leader (a Bahamian-flagged car carrier operated by Japan's Nippon Yusen that was seized on 19 November 2023, its crew of 25 held hostage for over a year). Shipping lines now tend to avoid a route through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, instead detouring around Africa.

AFP — A Houthi helicopter flies over the cargo ship Galaxy Leader as Houthi fighters walk on the deck of the ship in the Red Sea, on 20 November 2023.

In the eyes of ordinary Japanese sympathetic to the Palestinians, the Houthis' reasons to attack international commercial ships are not justified, because their attacks on civilian shipping cause problems globally, not just in Israel. Perhaps the biggest Japanese concern over the Middle East today is the possibility of war between Israel and Iran, with the resulting instability and disruption, not least to the flow of oil and gas from the region.

The deployment of US B-2 Bombers in Diego Garcia and the additional dispatch of the US Aircraft Carrier USS Carl Vinson to the Middle East heightened tension. Although, since withdrawn, for the Japanese, it is dispiriting to see US forces distracted away from Asia at a time when we face serious security challenges posed by our neighbours. A strong deterrent presence of US forces is important for Japan, especially given the precarious situation of East Asia.

Such considerations naturally make Japan more proactive, not only in terms of our own capability, but in working towards peace and stability in the Middle East. We are also confident that the Middle Eastern people trust and respect the Japanese, because they know our commitment to peace and stability in the region.

Whenever I have talked either with Iraqis, Syrians, or Palestinians in their times of difficulty, I have sensed their genuine respect and trust in Japan. Some of my favourite Arabic words are al-Sidq (trust) and al-Sadaqa (friendship). Our bonds are based upon mutual trust, particularly when some seem to want to abandon the rule of law. A true friendship based on trust has become a rare commodity.

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