Geopolitical tensions rise in the seas of China and Japan

ASEAN countries' concerns were also voiced at the 20th Shangri-La Dialogue forum held in Singapore from June 2-4. Kao Kim Hourn, the Secretary-General of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), emphasised the importance of ASEAN centrality in regional architecture and how sub-regional arrangements complement ASEAN-led regional mechanisms.

He stressed that ASEAN is a centripetal force in the region, highlighting how it can use its multilateralism to promote unity among the ASEAN member states and cooperation among and with ASEAN external partners.

On his part, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken voiced America's view on security in the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea in front of representatives of Russia and China.

"We share a vision of a free, open, thriving, secure, connected, and flexible Indo-Pacific region. This means a region where countries are free to thrive on their own terms, without coercion or bullying," indirectly alluding to China.

He said that North Korea posed the greatest threat to the United States, South Korea, and Japan, emphasising the need to "uphold the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea and the East China Sea and to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait."

Behind the scenes of the summit, the Americans adopted a softer approach in an attempt to ease the confrontational atmosphere with China.

Blinken extended an invitation to Beijing for urgent military-to-military communications between the US and Chinese armies during a meeting with Wang Yi, the Director of the Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, on the sidelines of the ASEAN meeting.

This was their second meeting after a previous one held in Beijing last month and came immediately after US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's visit to Beijing last week, during which she met with several high-ranking government officials, including Premier Li Keqiang. Yellen called for further exchanges and cooperation between the two countries.

Washington has built a string of security and political alliances to support countries in the South China Sea in their confrontation with Beijing. This maritime area is witnessing sovereignty issues and disputes over control of islands, waters, and multiple straits.

Confrontation unfolds against backdrop of China's expansion

The confrontation between the two superpowers in the South China Sea is unfolding against the backdrop of China's expansion, as it has released maps claiming ownership of the majority of the sea, which has sparked protests from some ASEAN countries that consider certain islands as part of their territories.

Read more: Pacifist Japan grows more assertive amid Russia, China adventurism

In mid-September 2021, Washington announced the AUKUS alliance with Britain and Australia in a move to reshape the power structure in the Pacific Ocean region. This alliance is seen as an attempt to counter Chinese influence in the South China Sea, which has been a hotspot of tensions for years.

Additionally, Washington has sought to revive and strengthen the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as the Quad, which consists of the United States, India, Japan, and Australia.

The Quad was established as a platform for security and intelligence cooperation among the four countries and is envisioned as a nucleus for an expanded Asian Nato, potentially including Asian, European, and possibly Middle Eastern countries, in line with a US strategy of containing China similar to the containment strategy used against the former Soviet Union during the Cold War.

At the end of November 2021, leaders of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia held their first in-person meeting as part of the Quad bloc, focusing on several key issues, notably the security of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.

So far, Washington has failed to develop a new framework that would bring it together with Beijing or achieve any breakthrough in the tensions surrounding the future of Taiwan and China's regional claims in the South China Sea.

There appears to be an acceptance of a state of critical and overt competition between the two sides that does not cross the boundaries of confrontation, with efforts focused on establishing the foundations for peaceful coexistence.

China and Russia "respond" to US vision

China's invitation for Russia to participate in the naval exercises can be seen as a response to the American vision.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov began this "response" in Jakarta by accusing the US of targeting ASEAN and seeking to replace it with the Indo-Pacific Strategy while attempting to involve Nato in the region.

In turn, China warned against Nato's encroachment into Asia, considering such Western policy as "undermining regional peace and stability."

Mao Ning, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, stated in Beijing that "Asia is a pillar of peace and stability and a promising land for cooperation and development. It is not an arena for geopolitical competition."

The Russian-Chinese partnership in naval exercises represents a declaration of their balance of capabilities with the US Navy in its respective areas of interest, particularly maritime corridors.

In this context, Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu met with Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief Nikolai Yevmenov on 3 July in the Chinese capital, Beijing.

According to a statement by the Chinese defence minister reported by China Daily,  military cooperation between China and Russia is growing steadily under the guidance of their leaders.

The navies of both countries have close interactions and continuous cooperation. They are also expanding practical cooperation in professional fields to effectively contribute to regional and even global peace and stability.

The Russian Navy Commander-in-Chief affirmed that Russia is ready to strictly implement the agreements reached by the two leaders and continually elevate bilateral military relations to a higher level.

Earlier this month, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that  Russian and Chinese air forces conducted a joint air patrol in Asia and the Pacific region, led by two strategic missile carriers from both countries.

The ministry said in its statement, "On 7 June 2023, the Russian Air Force and the Chinese People's Liberation Army Air Force conducted another joint air patrol in the Asia-Pacific region over the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea, and the western part of the Pacific Ocean."

Prior to that, Russia and China conducted joint military exercises and naval manoeuvres with an offensive nature in the East China Sea from 21 December to 27 December 2022, under the name Marine Interaction 22.

These exercises took place off the coast of China's Zhejiang Province. The Russian Ministry of Defence stated that the warships of the Pacific Fleet and the naval forces of the Chinese People's Liberation Army successfully completed practical tasks in the East China Sea as part of the bilateral naval exercises.

Clashes between the two sides continue to occur in the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea, as military movements occur in the region.

Washington justifies its activities as routine naval operations to ensure and affirm freedom of navigation, while Beijing argues that US movements threaten its security and that it will not hesitate to defend its sovereignty and territorial boundaries.

Moreover, the Taiwan Strait has witnessed unprecedented disruptions in military manoeuvres since last summer.

The Chinese People's Liberation Army has repeatedly encircled the island of Taiwan this year and conducted massive manoeuvres in the strait in response to the visit of Nancy Pelosi, the former Speaker of the US House of Representatives, to Taiwan in August, and then the meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and current Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, in California in April.

Beijing says its strategy for relations with countries in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and the Sea of Japan revolves around a set of traditional principles, including calling on nations to commit to a vision of common security and cooperation within a multilateral framework and respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations while taking into account the legitimate security concerns of all countries.

On its part, the US views this as a Chinese attempt to control the countries in the region through frameworks, titles, and alliances aimed at developing Chinese military capabilities and establishing a new balance of power and rules for a new global order.

Despite the agreement among ASEAN member states on the main principles of maintaining stability and resolving disputes through dialogue, there are differences among the members regarding their approach to China.

Some countries, such as Malaysia and Singapore, seek closer engagement and dialogue with China. However, other countries lean more towards the US position, especially the Philippines, which has a military alliance with Washington, including conducting joint patrols in the South China Sea, which angers China.

The discussions held in the Shangri-La Dialogue forum, as well as the meetings of ASEAN member states, have revealed the extent of the impact of tension between the US and China on security in Asia and the growing concerns among regional countries arising from the repercussions of this tension, not only in the South China Sea but also in the Indo-Pacific regions, and potentially the world as a whole.

Moreover, expanding Chinese economic influence worries Western countries who could then move to boost their military capabilities — particularly its naval forces.

Indeed, the US is likely to continue its policy of confrontation with China by strengthening its bilateral relations with regional countries or even forming new alliances similar to Nato.

China has warned against such moves, arguing that they would plunge the region into a spiral of conflicts.

Given the context in which the US and its allies view China as a military threat, and persist in taking measures to deter it, it is difficult to imagine a breakthrough in Sino-American relations in the foreseeable future.

It seems that countries in the Southeast and East Asian region will have to find a way to live with the existing situation. This dynamic will cast its shadow over countries in the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the entire Indo-Pacific region.