Trump’s first 100 days: a president in search of an achievement

The US president vowed to bring Iran to heel, end the war in Gaza, and end the war in Ukraine. But on all three fronts, he is still waiting.

Trump’s first 100 days: a president in search of an achievement

This is not the 100-day presidential landmark that Donald Trump would have imagined or hoped for. When it comes to foreign policy, the century by which all new leaders’ impacts are measured has come and gone with barely a whimper.

After 100 days in the Oval Office, Trump wanted to have secured historic, lasting prizes—an end to the war in Gaza, an end to the war in Ukraine, and an end to Iran’s nuclear programme. For a man whose book is called The Art of the Deal, these were all achievements that he boasted of being able to deliver in his first days and weeks.

He wanted to commemorate his second term’s first 100 days by signing at least one such major deal, the kind he has long pursued, even before entering the White House—something befitting the president of the world’s most powerful nation.

As a presidential candidate last year, Trump set timelines for his achievements: He vowed to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, strike a deal with Iran in 60 days, and halt the war in Gaza immediately. Only the latter transpired, and only fleetingly. Today, none of Trump’s targeted belligerents have yet laid down their weapons.

Racking up air miles

In his armoury has been America’s military and economic might. His negotiation tools have been his commentary, both online and in-person, while his soldiers have included his Middle East envoy, personal friend, and fellow property tycoon Steve Witkoff, who has racked up countless air miles flying between capitals.

Witkoff and Trump had hoped to conclude the latter’s first 100 days with a celebratory ‘deal’, but their hopes have collided with regional complexities, calculations, and interests, to say nothing of the negotiating prowess of other states’ representatives, who have experience in this area and are no fools.

Trump’s only high note was in Gaza, when his ally Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to a ceasefire deal, which Israel later broke. Full of bravado, Trump then suggested that Gaza could be drained of Palestinians and made into a real estate “riviera,” to which the Arab world recoiled.

Trump set timelines for his achievements: He vowed to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, strike a deal with Iran in 60 days, and halt the war in Gaza immediately

Today, the ceasefire is an increasingly distant memory. Israeli bombs are flying again. Neither warring party has been able to sign a lasting agreement, despite the ongoing efforts of mediators such as Egypt and Qatar.

Israel is bombing again because this is the price of Netanyahu keeping his right-wing coalition together, and Hamas is not prepared to release all the hostages or surrender its arms, as had been demanded of it. Meanwhile, Arab states know that they object to Trump's plan for Gaza but have not yet said who will pay for the Strip's rebuilding.

Ploughing on regardless

Netanyahu is not waiting for mediators to find a breakthrough. Backed by Washington, he is pushing ahead with plans to occupy 30% of Gaza and annex land in the West Bank, southern Syria, and southern Lebanon. Meanwhile, Hamas continues to insist on Israel's withdrawal for a permanent truce—something Israel will not agree to.

Trump might have hoped he would have better news when it came to Iran, which has seen its regional proxies take a pounding in the past 18 months. Trump offered Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei a choice: abandon your military nuclear ambitions in return for the lifting of sanctions, or prepare for a military strike.

Netanyahu actively encouraged the latter, as he has done for decades, and Trump gave a 60-day deadline that coincided with the 100th day of his presidency. That, plus some unattributed explosions at Iranian infrastructure sites, seems to have brought the Iranians to the negotiating table.

Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have met in Muscat and Rome, but Tehran's strategy could be to bog the US down in minutiae, judging that the inexperienced real estate investor Witkoff is ill-equipped to handle the nuclear negotiations, which are steeped in technical information.

Trump has said he would be willing to meet Khamenei, should a deal be reached in principle, having already met North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during his first term. Khamenei will tread carefully, mindful of Tehran's powerful hardliners.

Russia and Ukraine

Of the three crises Trump said he would solve, Ukraine has perhaps consumed the most column inches, and represents the most complex challenge, not least because its outcome is of such vital interest to America's most important post-war allies in Europe, and to America's future relations with China.

Trump felt his friendliness with Russian President Vladimir Putin would lead to peace within 24 hours. He also felt that, had he been in power, Russia would not have invaded. Kamala Harris, his Democratic opponent in the 2024 presidential election, said that Putin "would be sitting in Kyiv by now" had Trump, not Joe Biden, been president.

Witkoff and Araghchi met in Muscat and Rome, but Iran's strategy could be to bog the US down in minutiae

Trump assumed that endorsing the Kremlin's narrative and ending US arms supplies to Ukraine would broker a deal between Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, but the Russian president rejected the US idea of a 30-day ceasefire and barely adhered to a partial truce in the Black Sea intended to pave the way for a broader cessation.

Neither Putin nor Zelenskyy agreed to all the points in Trump's proposed peace plan. For Ukraine, this would mean surrendering its eastern territories, Crimea, its aspirations to join NATO, and control over the important Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Trump's haste led to Putin and Zelenskyy drawing red lines.

Trump repeatedly rebuked Zelenskyy, including in-person in front of the cameras at the White House, but in recent days, he has also criticised his friend, Putin. At the Pope's funeral at the end of April, Trump made a point of speaking one-on-one with Zelenskyy.

For this self-declared deal-maker, the first 100 days of his second US presidential term will have re-emphasised the importance of patience, detail, and diplomacy. The sight of Witkoff opposite veteran negotiator Putin (plus all his senior ministers and advisors) showed that absorbing Russian rhetoric does not equate to persuading Zelenskyy.

Good intentions alone do not make peace, tours alone do not seal deals, and social media posts alone cannot perform miracles. Trump will hope the next 100 days bear more diplomatic fruit than the first.

font change