As world leaders struggle to contend with two major conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, the recent dramatic escalation in tensions between India and Pakistan raises the prospect of a new war erupting between two nuclear-armed powers.
The deadly attack by militants in the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir this week, which resulted in the massacre of 25 Indian tourists and a Nepalese citizen, has reignited the long-standing tensions between India and Pakistan that date back to partition in 1947.
With a previously unknown Islamic militant group called the Resistance Front claiming responsibility for the attack, the Indian authorities have immediately blamed neighbouring Pakistan for the massacre, even though no proof has yet been provided to substantiate the claim.
Various Islamist militant groups, some of them with links to extremist organisations such as al-Qaeda, have long used Pakistan as a base to launch attacks against India, with the Indian authorities accusing Pakistan’s powerful security forces of complicity in the attacks.
This was particularly true during the so-called “war on terror”, when Pakistan-based militant groups regularly launched devastating terrorist attacks against India, such as the Mumbai train bombings in 2006, in which 207 people were killed.
The bombings were linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba(LeT), an Islamist group that campaigns for Kashmir’s independence from Indian control and which the Indian authorities have claimed has ties to Pakistan’s feared ISI intelligence service.
Source of tension
While Islamabad has consistently denied any links to LeT and other Islamist groups, the continued presence of these groups in Pakistani-controlled territory has been a constant source of tension between the two countries, which have on occasion brought the two powers to the brink of war.
The fear now is that, after a period of relative calm along the Indian-Pakistan border, the latest attacks in Kashmir could result in a new round of hostilities between the two countries, which have already fought four major wars since independence in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999.
There are also concerns that the latest tensions could escalate into a broader conflict because Pakistan today is closely allied with China, another regional power with which Delhi has strained ties. In recent years, Chinese and Indian forces have been involved in a series of military border clashes, raising fears that it could ultimately lead to a regional war.
In such circumstances, therefore, the deepening tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi following the Kashmir attacks will be a matter of deep concern for world leaders, and they seek to prevent yet another global conflict from erupting.
To judge by the response of both the Indian and Pakistan governments to the attacks, neither side appears to be prepared to back down in the latest confrontation.
Harsh response
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has responded to the attack by announcing the suspension of a water-sharing treaty between the two rival nations, as well as closing the land border and expelling a number of diplomats.
Announcing the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, the Indian government said the measure would remain in place "until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism." In addition, New Delhi is closing the Attari post in Punjab (opposite Wagah, Pakistan), the only land crossing between the two countries.
Modi warned that "India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers and we will pursue them to the ends of the Earth." He said that the "terrorists behind the killings, along with their backers, will get a punishment bigger than they can imagine".
Defence Minister Rajnath Singh openly accused Pakistan and threatened: "We will not only target those who carried out the attack. We will also target those who planned this act in the shadows, on our soil."
Meanwhile, Islamabad has reacted angrily to the suggestion that Pakistan was in any way involved in the attacks, and has responded by suspending all visas issued to Indian nationals under an exemption scheme with immediate effect, as well as expelling some of its neighbour's diplomats and closing its airspace to Indian flights.
Stark warning
In an interview with Sky News, Pakistan’s defence minister, Khawaja Asif, warned that the mass shooting in Kashmir could result in an “all-out war” between the two countries.
"We will measure our response to whatever is initiated by India. It would be a measured response,” he warned."If there is an all-out attack or something like that, then obviously there will be an all-out war."
With Indian and Pakistani troops exchanging fire across the line of control in disputed Kashmir, the UN has urged the nuclear-armed rivals to show “maximum restraint”.
The key now is whether the long-standing deconfliction measures in place to maintain the peace along India’s northern border will be sufficient to prevent any further escalation in tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi.
World leaders, who already have their hands full trying to resolve the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, will certainly be hoping that a new conflict erupting between India and Pakistan can be avoided.
