Pakistan election: A pivotal moment for South Asia and the world

As Khan's political star wanes, however, the return of another former prime minister — Nawaz Sharif — adds complexity to the unfolding narrative.

Sharif is well known on the international circuit, having been Pakistan's prime minister three times already, including from 1990-93, 1997-99, and 2013-17.

He has been convicted of multiple serious charges over the years, including kidnapping, hijacking, terrorism, attempted murder, and corruption, and has had several long sentences passed. All have been overturned.

Khan alleged that Sharif had "struck a deal with the establishment whereby it will support his acquittal and throw its weight behind him in the upcoming elections".

Sharif's return from the UK following the quashing of graft convictions in November 2023 has transformed Pakistan's political landscape.

On the chessboard of Pakistani politics, it adds a layer of intrigue and creates a dynamic interplay that underscores the country's ongoing democratic evolution.

With Sharif now addressing enraptured crowds at election rallies, the geopolitical implications of his return are beginning to unfold as observers clamour to understand its effects on this key South Asian nation.

Regional significance

Pakistan's domestic political landscape is intricately woven into the broader tapestry of South Asian geopolitics, making the outcome of the upcoming 2024 elections a matter of international significance.

The region's stability hinges on how Pakistan interacts with its neighbours, particularly India and Afghanistan.

In the context of Pakistan's relations with India, the election results could either escalate or alleviate tensions between these two nuclear-armed nations.

A change in leadership could lead to a recalibration of strategies, impacting initiatives aimed at fostering peace and stability in the region.

Disputes over issues such as Kashmir (the northernmost region of the Indian subcontinent) and water could turn on the political inclinations of the incoming government in Islamabad.

The eyes of the international community are keenly fixed on these developments, recognising the historical and geopolitical importance of the relationship between Pakistan and India.

Meanwhile, as Afghanistan undergoes its own political transition, the outcome of Pakistan's election will be pivotal for the Taliban next door. The two countries share challenges, such as border security and refugee management, yet their relationship is frayed at best.

In November 2023, Pakistan's caretaker prime minister accused Afghanistan's Taliban of supporting the anti-Pakistan insurgent group Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Its actions have led to more than 2,800 deaths since August 2021.

Read more: From Baluchistan to Syria: Lifting the curtain on the Iran-Pakistan shadow war

Neighbourly relations

A stable Pakistan is not only crucial for its own political stability but also for broader regional peace. The unfreezing of relations with India would help towards this.

Analysts express cautious optimism that the return of Nawaz Sharif to power could thaw these strained ties, although the pair's history of spat and diplomatic downgrades indicate that challenges lie ahead.

The year 2023 witnessed a significant diplomatic development with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's visit to India, the first by a Pakistani foreign minister in over a decade.

However, the lack of meaningful dialogue and the pointed rhetoric during Bhutto's visit underscored the deep-seated issues that continue to strain relations.

The ill-will stems from a 2019 decision by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to revoke the Indian Constitution's Article 370, which gave the territory of Jammu and Kashmir significant autonomy.

There followed a lengthy crackdown in the state of 12 million people. The Indian military mobilised in large numbers, the internet was cut off for 18 months, a strict curfew was imposed, and political leaders were jailed.

In response, Pakistan and India downgraded diplomatic ties and ceased trading, with relations never having really recovered.

With Afghanistan's evolving situation and relations between Islamabad and Kabul sour, Pakistan finds itself in a precarious position, at odds with both neighbours.

Its gamble in supporting the Taliban seems to have backfired since the Kabul government has refused to sever ties with TTP militants. Pakistan's expulsion of thousands of Afghans living illegally in the country is very much seen as linked to this.

Read more: Two years of Taliban rule: The view from Afghanistan's neighbours

Global implications

As 2024 unfolds, the world watches with anticipation and apprehension, knowing that Pakistan's election outcome could usher in changes across South Asia.

Pakistan's strategic geographic location makes it a critical player in global politics, especially given the power play between the United States, China, and Russia.

The US is a traditional ally with a keen interest in regional stability, so it will closely monitor the unfolding developments in Pakistan.

The new government's decisions in areas such as counterterrorism, nuclear non-proliferation, and diplomatic relations will not only shape US-Pakistan ties but could shape Washington's relations with others, too.

Meanwhile China, which has invested deeply through initiatives like the $60bn China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), seeks a stable and cooperative partnership with Pakistan.

The composition of Pakistan's government could, therefore, impact economically as well as geopolitically, with several big multinational companies watching.

Russia, with its strategic interests in South Asia, will also take an interest in who replaces Imran Khan, although Pakistan is certainly not a Russian priority, nor does Russia top Pakistan's agenda.

Still, the pair have increased regional cooperation on issues such as borderland insurgencies and drug smuggling, with their militaries fostering good relations.

Security challenges

The challenges confronting Pakistan not only pose a critical threat to its national integrity but also cast a shadow over global stability.

Recent attacks on political candidates and the looming spectre of terrorism raise serious apprehensions about the prospect of conducting free and fair elections.

The international community is monitoring how Pakistan grapples with these security challenges, acknowledging that regional stability is contingent upon quelling internal unrest and curbing the influence of extremist elements.

Last year was among the deadliest in recent Pakistani history, with around 500 civilians killed and an equal number of security personnel due to militant attacks, according to the Centre for Research and Security Studies.

Northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and southwestern Baluchistan provinces near Afghanistan were the epicentres, with groups like TTP and ISKP implicated.

There are reportedly thousands of TTP fighters in Afghanistan, and Pakistan has accused Afghanistan's ruling Taliban of aiding cross-border raids, killing 265 Pakistani soldiers.

Meanwhile, recent attacks on political candidates have exacerbated security concerns. The imperative of establishing and maintaining a stable and secure Pakistan extends beyond the confines of national interests; it is pivotal for regional peace.

Pakistan's all-powerful armed forces and security agencies will want to retain the final say over security matters, and a US-friendly prime minister will be welcomed.

Khan has said his removal from power followed "pressure from America, which was becoming agitated with my push for an independent foreign policy and my refusal to provide bases for its armed forces".

The US denies allegations that it interfered, but even if it did; Khan has few friends left in the West after prioritising relations with Russia and China. 

"From a Washington perspective, anyone would be better," says Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre in Washington. Sharif is seen as pro-business and pro-America.

American ally

After the US withdrew from Afghanistan, Washington's foreign policy priorities shifted to China, Ukraine, and now Gaza.

Yet the importance of a trusted partner in Islamabad was made clear recently after an Iranian air strike in Pakistan, with Tehran targeting militants.

Read more: Iran's attack on Pakistan is not all that meets the eye

American priorities in Pakistan are to keep a lid on terrorism and stabilise relations with arch-nemesis India. Sharif is seen as a safer pair of hands on both issues.

However, these US priorities are not necessarily shared by Pakistan's military overlords, who may be backing Sharif today but who have engineered his ouster three times in the past, once via a coup d'état.

There remains "a lot of bad blood between Nawaz and the military," according to analysts at Foreign Policy.

Economic consequences

Meanwhile, Pakistan contends with its most severe economic crisis to date, and the incoming government faces a formidable task, not least by engaging with global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The decisions made post-election will undoubtedly chart the course of Pakistan's economy and determine its standing in the broader global economic order.

International investors are focused on its evolving political landscape. Their decisions will hinge on the economic policies articulated by the new government.

Pakistan needs to secure the support of the IMF and other crucial financial institutions. To do that, it may need to make some unpalatable decisions.

Writing in The Economist, Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to the US, said the country needs "to sell off or shut down state-owned enterprises that have been losing money for years, including the national airline and various transport and energy concerns".

He added that "swathes of the economy including agriculture, real estate and retail that pay little or no tax need to contribute more to reduce Pakistan's swelling debt and deficit".

By 2026, Pakistan needs to repay $78bn in external debt, yet its annual gross domestic product (GDP) is only around $350bn. Opening up trade with India would help considerably, argues Haqqani, as would expanding Pakistan's tax base.

The ramifications of these decisions will reverberate through the boardrooms of businesses and investment vehicles with interests in Pakistan.

Sharif and Modi?

Pakistan, with a population of 238 million, is not alone in holding regional elections because 1.4 billion Indians go to the polls, too.

Whoever wins these races will play a pivotal role in determining the direction of international relations, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, which is increasingly important in global affairs.

Sharif has shown that he can weave his way through the complex web of international relations and is adept at handling both China and the US. Doing so could benefit Pakistan and contribute to the delicate balancing of forces in the region.

It was Sharif, for instance, who convinced China to invest billions in the CPEC infrastructure project that has boosted Pakistan's economic prospects and solidified bilateral ties.

Meanwhile, Indians will cast their ballots in April-May, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) expected to retain, if not increase, its majority.

Modi, like Sharif, is a friend of Washington's, which could provide common ground for collaboration. Foreign policy experts see a potential win-win if both Sharif and Modi win, as enhanced cooperation between the two could bring stability to South Asia.

Such a West-facing collaboration could also prove instrumental in countering external influences, such as from China and Russia.

The prospect of a Sharif-Modi alliance holds the prospect of breaking historical barriers and ushering in a new era of regional cooperation while providing a bulwark against adversaries in the Indo-Pacific.

Elections in Pakistan and India, therefore, present an opportunity for South Asia to chart a course towards reconciliation, peace, and prosperity if underpinned by victories for the two US allies. A lot depends on the results.