Pakistan poll aftermath doesn't bode well for India relations

'Hidden message' to India

In a "victory speech", even before the official election results, Nawaz dropped hints of better relations with India.

"We want our relations with the world and neighbours to improve," Nawaz said.

"Pakistan, at this point, cannot afford any kind of fight," he said.

The Indian media seized on his statements as a "hidden" and "indirect" message for India.

He also discussed having an action plan to get Pakistan out of "this vortex" regarding the country's current political and financial problems.

His speech seemed to be as murky as the election outcome, where no party has scored a clear victory, and no combination of parties looks likely to provide a stable environment in which decisive foreign policy decisions regarding India can be made.

The tainted 8 February elections have proven that Imran and his party remain popular despite a relentless crackdown against their supporters and leaders.

Imran survived an assassination attempt in November 2022 and has been in prison since August last year. The party's number two leader and former foreign minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, is also in jail.

The Supreme Court of Pakistan denied the PTI use of its cricket bat voting symbol — a significant disadvantage against the PML-N and the PPP. So, the party fielded its candidates as independents, and they still led the overall tally of National Assembly seats.

The PTI alleged that it was robbed of a big victory through election rigging; dozens of its candidates were declared losers despite winning in the vote count.

The murky poll outcome is clearly not conducive to pursuing a robust foreign policy, especially engagements with India.

With other neighbourly relations to manage, such as Iran, Afghanistan and China, the foreign ministry will need to lean heavily on the military establishment for guidance.

Pakistan's relationship with India has traditionally been the most intense and complex and has been subjected to heavy media scrutiny. The PML-N may have the establishment's backing, but public legitimacy is more critical in diplomatic dealings with India.

India viewed both Imran and Qureshi as stubborn leaders who insisted that New Delhi reverse its decision on Kashmir before relations between the two countries could improve. The Kashmir issue is an intractable one and will remain so in India-Pakistan diplomacy.

However, more mundane things — which are also somewhat sensitive in the relationship between the two nuclear-armed neighbours — can be discussed.

The screening of Indian movies across the border and making Pakistani television series available in India can be discussed, trade and transport links can be explored, diplomatic representation can be restored to the pre-2019 level, and travel and sports can be promoted.

Pakistan ended the last transport link with India — a bus service linking Lahore with New Delhi — in 2019 following India's Kashmir move.

Indian leader Vajpayee conducted his famous bus diplomacy, arriving in Lahore in 1999 on the inaugural service. He was welcomed warmly by Nawaz.

However, within months, India and Pakistan fought the Kargil War. Army chief General Pervez Musharraf overthrew Nawaz in the same year.

Musharraf served as Pakistan's president from 2001 to 2008 and had several infamous diplomatic dramas with India.

Since Musharraf's rule ended, the army has not taken direct government control but exercised power in a de facto hybrid system, accommodating a weak civilian leadership.

In the current political situation, the military has to win back the popular support it lost due to anger over how Imran was ousted and the crackdown against the PTI.

It is open to question what kind of diplomatic moves Pakistan can make towards India, while the internal situation requires full-time attention.

Leadership style

There is also the issue of Nawaz's personal leadership style when it comes to India. The Sharif family are not mere politicians; they own major businesses and have intricate relations with Indian tycoons.

Nawaz's third term as prime minister was between 2013 and 2017 before the Panama Papers scandal exposed their overseas property deals and tarnished the family's reputation.

Nawaz returned to Pakistan in October last year after nearly four years in self-imposed exile. The Supreme Court disqualified him from holding office over corruption allegations in 2017.

Nawaz conspicuously did not appoint a foreign minister but managed external relations with an advisor.

For a nuclear-armed country with wide-ranging engagements with major powers and close interactions within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), it was seen as an inexplicable oddity.

Nawaz's personal style of diplomacy was such that the Pakistan high commissioner in New Delhi did not know until he learned from journalists that the Indian and Pakistani leaders were going to meet in Ufa, Russia, at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in 2015.

Bilawal — a foreign minister during Shehbaz's premiership — travelled to India to attend a SCO ministerial meeting in May 2023.

That was the first time a Pakistani foreign minister travelled to India in 12 years and the first high-profile visit since Nawaz attended Modi's 2014 swearing-in.

The Bilawal visit did not have bilateral engagements, and the acrimonious words indirectly exchanged by the two sides then laid bare the nature of their relationship.

Despite the political uncertainty over the poll outcome, what is clear is that the next Pakistan prime minister, foreign minister, and army leadership have their task cut out for them.