Syria weighs US demands against the needs of its people

Al-Sharaa has many concerns as transitional president, not least security and balancing the needs of his people with factional and regional politics. It will be a long journey, and it has just begun.

Syria weighs US demands against the needs of its people

Leaked diplomatic communications revealing what Washington demands of the transitional government in Damascus have shed further light on the evolving international reaction to regime change in Syria.

The revelations were followed by a warning published on the website of the US embassy, which revealed the extent of official concern about the security situation in the country: “The US Department of State warns American citizens of an increased threat of attacks during Eid al-Fitr celebrations, which may target embassies, international organisations, and Syrian public institutions in Damascus. Possible attack methods may include armed assailants, attackers on foot, or using explosive devices."

The US is not alone in its worries. Germany and Austria have cancelled ministerial visits to the country due to indications of a potential terrorist threat. Even the inauguration ceremony of the new Syrian government was delayed by hours due to security concerns.

It coincided with an announcement from Syria's Ministry of Interior of an operation in the Sayyidah Zaynab area in rural Damascus, targeting cells reportedly affiliated with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah suspected of "planning criminal operations." Security forces arrested several operatives.

In January, Syrian security forces thwarted a plot by the Islamic State (IS) to detonate a bomb at a shrine in the same area, according to Syria's official news agency, SANA. The Washington Post reported that the US had shared confidential intelligence with Syrian authorities, helping them foil the attack.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the US has presented Syria with a list of conditions to be met in exchange for a partial easing of sanctions, citing six sources. The conditions include ensuring that no foreigners assume leadership positions within the government. The demands were delivered by Natasha Franceschi, deputy assistant secretary of state for the Levant and Syria, to Asaad al-Shaibani, Syria’s minister of foreign affairs, during a donors' conference in Brussels.

Read more: What Trump wants from Sharaa

The US has presented Syria with a list of conditions to be met in exchange for a partial easing of sanctions

Tall order

The list includes granting access to sites relating to chemical weapons and cooperating against IS to prevent any resurgence of the group. Washington also wants Damascus to join the Abraham Accords which would normalise relations with Israel. It is also calling for the government to designate Iran's Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation and ensure Tehran stays out of Syria and the Lebanese border is secured.

The demands are reasonable and align closely with Syrian national interests. Damascus has already started to implement them discreetly. In fact, just days after they were leaked, chemical weapons inspectors visited Damascus. Syrian officials accompanied them to five chemical weapons production and storage sites from the Assad era, including at previously undisclosed locations.

Meanwhile, Riyadh's Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman hosted a meeting in Jeddah attended by Syrian Minister of Defence Murhaf Abu Qasra and his Lebanese counterpart, Michel Mansa, discussing "issues of mutual interest between Syria and Lebanon aimed at enhancing their security and stability".

Both sides signed an agreement emphasising the strategic importance of demarcating their shared border, forming specialised legal committees, and activating coordination mechanisms to address security and military challenges. A follow-up meeting is scheduled to take place in Saudi Arabia soon.

Control of the Syrian-Lebanese border is critical not just for those two nations but for broader regional security— particularly in preventing any resurgence of drug and weapons smuggling, which was prevalent during the Assad regime and Hezbollah's dominance in Beirut.

The US wants Iran out of Syria, which has been a long-held Syrian aspiration

Aligned interests

Pushing Iran out of Syria and classifying the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation are moves which also align closely with longstanding Syrian aspirations. Syrians themselves had advocated such moves for many years before the US demanded them.

But joining the Abraham Accords is more controversial. Such a move raises crucial questions: Is Syria being asked to normalise relations with Israel simply for the sake of normalisation, or is the real aim genuine and lasting peace? Can sanctions realistically pressure Syria into making concessions while Israeli attacks on Syrian territory continue unabated, or might this pressure instead push Damascus towards serious negotiations for peace?

Preventing non-Syrians from taking leadership positions in the government appears reasonable, but it might be difficult for al-Sharaa to implement. To him, people seen by some as foreigners are important allies who contributed to Syria's victory and are, as far as he is concerned, comrades in arms.

Read more: Syria developments give cause for both optimism and worry

The crucial question is whether he can exert sufficient influence over them to prioritise Syria's national interests or if demonstrating flexibility on this matter could pose personal risks to him. Al-Sharaa appears to be cautiously shifting away from his reliance on armed factions towards representing the needs of ordinary Syrian citizens. He uses reassuring rhetoric and responds to their demands within the complex realities of Syria's political landscape.

Whatever else, it is clear that Syria has embarked on a long journey, one with daunting internal and external challenges and risks. Each step the transitional government takes towards building a Syria that is truly representative of all its citizens will help determine the success of this path.

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