Syria developments give cause for both optimism and worry

Furthermore, the formation of political parties is circumscribed by a law that will be promulgated by the People's Assembly. If freedom of political expression in Syria is genuine, it should also be guaranteed, meaning the formation of political parties should be unrestricted, with the exception of those formed on an explicitly religious or ethnic basis.

The president's powers extend to the judiciary, too, since they appoint Supreme Court Justices. In most modern systems of governance, the checks and balances of the system lie in the independence of the legislature and the judiciary to rein in the power of the executive.

Another concern is the duration of the transition. Although short transitions can produce both flawed constitutions and unrepresentative parliaments, a five-year transition is far too long. Some now suspect that this is a ploy to give time and space to the current rulers to consolidate their power.

Sectarian violence

These are not Syria's only concerns. In early March, fighting erupted between armed forces loyal to the new government and armed forces with loyalties to the Assad regime in Homs, Latakia, and Tartous. More than 1,000 Syrians were killed. Many of these were Alawites. Bashar al-Assad was from the Alawite community, which makes up around 10% of Syria's population, and many of his senior officials were Alawites.

As both sides blamed the other, al-Sharaa promptly said he would create a fact-finding commission and a commission for social peace. These commissions need to address the underlying factors, not least the raging grievances from massive lay-offs of military and civilian personnel without compensation since December, despite Sharaa having assured minority communities that they were safe from harm and discrimination. 

Read more: Syria coastal violence: A critical test for Sharaa's government

Elsewhere, the agreement between the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast and the ruling authorities in Damascus is an extremely important development that may open the door to resolving Syria's longstanding Kurdish problem. Yet, the agreement merely sets the principles and parameters for a settlement. The most delicate and important issues still need to be decided, such as how to merge the SDF's military and administrative structures with those of Damascus.

Moreover, how to integrate SDF-led security forces with national military personnel is still unclear, as is the governance model, the constitution, and the SDF's role in the transition. This helps explain why the SDF's reaction to the Constitutional Declaration was negative. Transforming it into something tangible still requires a lot of goodwill and hard work.

The agreement between Damascus and the Druze community was also a welcome development, given Israel's continued encroachment into Syrian sovereign territory and its suggestion that it has the right to protect the Druze community in Syria (which has not said it needs protecting). Bringing Syrian Kurds and Druze into the fold is key to national unity.

International support

Another bright note is the informal consultations by the United Nations Security Council on Syria following the joint request of Russia and the United States—the first time such a joint request has been made in decades, in part due to the nascent rapprochement between Moscow and Washington after a high-level bilateral meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia 

A settlement in Syria is only possible if there is a Russian-American agreement or at least an understanding. That was as true before 8 December 2024 as it is now. It would force regional actors to adjust their policies, adopt more constructive positions, and generate an internal dynamic conducive to a settlement. 

Without sufficient international support, Syrians will unlikely be able to be a new Syria that meets the aspirations of its multi-religious, multi-ethnic, multi-cultural population. Yet, although the interim authorities in Damascus have reservations about Resolution 2254 (and therefore about the political role of the UN Special Envoy), they have not foreclosed cooperation with the United Nations. That is positive.

Since Syria lacks the requisite expertise and personnel to undertake these colossal tasks, it should welcome international assistance—spearheaded by Arab states and the UN—to provide guardrails for the transition process to move towards a credible, inclusive, and non-sectarian system of governance.

Syria's tasks are huge. It needs to rebuild, get Western sanctions removed, facilitate the return of Syrian refugees, prepare for elections, and bring to justice those responsible for heinous crimes under al-Assad. The UN's ample experience in post-conflict situations can be adapted to Syrian realities, providing technical assistance while also mediating should national reconciliation prove elusive.

The Syrian people now have a chance to build the country they always wanted and deserve. There is much work to be done, but with the right help, they will get there.