With the Ukraine conflict entering its fourth year, the main diplomatic focus now is on whether the war can be ended through peace talks rather than waiting for one of the combatants to achieve a decisive victory.
US President Donald Trump has made clear that the war should be ended around the negotiating table and not on the battlefield. This position runs in stark contrast to his predecessor, Joe Biden, who favoured stepping up military support for Ukraine.
The change in Washington's approach has prompted fears among European leaders that his administration is looking to strike a deal with Moscow to end the conflict without properly consulting either Ukraine or its European allies. As a result, European leaders are scrambling to find ways to maintain their support for Ukraine if or when Washington abandons its backing.
Initial efforts to persuade Trump to adopt a more diplomatic tone on the Ukraine issue were made by French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday, 24 February, who visited the US president at the White House. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will also come later this week. Speaking ahead of his visit, Starmer said Ukrainians’ voices “must be at the heart of the drive for peace” while conceding that Trump’s intervention had “changed the global conversation” and “created an opportunity.”
Read more: Mark Rutte: It's important Ukraine negotiates from a position of strength
For his part, Macron warned Trump against striking a "weak" agreement with Putin and that any negotiations should be done "from a position of strength". He stressed the absolute need for security guarantees to ensure Moscow keeps its promises. “We want peace. He wants peace. But this peace must not mean a surrender of Ukraine,” Macron said.
And in a dramatic shift in American voting at the United Nations, the US refused to blame Russia for its invasion of Ukraine in votes on three UN resolutions Monday seeking an end to the three-year war. Washington actually joined Russia and China in voting against a Europe-backed Ukrainian resolution that called out Moscow’s aggression and demanded an immediate withdrawal of Russian troops.
The US then abstained from voting on its own competing resolution after Europeans, led by France, succeeded in amending it to make clear Russia was the aggressor.
For his part, European Council President Antonio Costa announced on Sunday that he would convene an emergency summit of EU leaders in Brussels on 6 March, with Ukraine at the top of the agenda.
“We are living in a defining moment for Ukraine and European security,” he said in a post on social media.
I have decided to convene a special European Council on 6 March.
We are living a defining moment for Ukraine and European security.
In my consultations with European leaders, I’ve heard a shared commitment to meet those challenges at EU level: strengthening European Defence...
— António Costa (@eucopresident) February 23, 2025
Devastating toll
Three years after Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his so-called “special military operation” to conquer Ukraine, it is clear that neither side is capable of achieving a decisive victory on the battlefield.
Far from achieving the swift victory that Putin envisaged when he launched the Russian invasion in February 2022, a war that has cost hundreds of millions of dollars and claimed significant casualties on both sides has degenerated into a bitter war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine.
While Russia continues to occupy about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory in the east and south of the country, its progress on the battlefield has been painfully slow, making moderate advances while incurring heavy losses. The latest Western intelligence estimates indicate that Moscow has suffered in excess of 850,000 battlefield casualties during the past three years of bitter fighting.
The war has also taken a heavy toll on Russia’s military strength, with US officials estimating that the Russians have lost more than 9,000 tanks and armoured vehicles since the commencement of hostilities. At the same time, Western sanctions have had a major impact on the Russian economy, with the cost of financing the war resulting in borrowing costs reaching a two-decade high of 21% this month.
Read more: Russia’s economy has defied doomsayers–at least so far
The war has also had a devastating impact on Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealing earlier this month that more than 46,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed during the past years, with another 390,000 being injured.
This claim has not been verified, but according to intelligence sources who spoke to the New York Times back in August 2023, Russian losses were estimated at 120,000 dead and 170,000–180,000 wounded, while Ukrainian losses were around 70,000 dead and 100,000–120,000 wounded.
As for total civilian casualties, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) put the number at 41,783 as of 31 January 2025. Of them, 29,178 people were reported to have been injured. However, the OHCHR specified that the real numbers could be higher.
