Iran's 'axis' laid to rest at Nasrallah's funeral

Hezbollah's current Secretary General Naim Qassem addressed mourners from an undisclosed location via screens, warning against mistaking the group's patience for weakness and vowing that "the resistance endures and continues." But his attempt to project defiance quickly fell apart when he acknowledged that Hezbollah recognises the advent of a "new phase" in Lebanon—one in which "the Lebanese state must assume its responsibilities" and in which Hezbollah "supports the role of the Lebanese army and stands by its side."

For his part, Lebanon's new president and former army commander Joseph Aoun spoke on the occasion, saying that Lebanon was "weary of fighting others' wars on its soil" and "has paid a heavy price in defence of the Palestinian cause." The message was seemingly directed at an Iranian delegation which attended the funeral along with other members of its regional axis.

Hezbollah will now struggle to find its footing in Lebanon's new political landscape, having grown accustomed to calling the shots and commanding oversized influence. In fact, almost exactly 20 years ago, it was implicated by the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri.

Read more: 20 years after his assassination, Hariri's vision is finally realised

Tables turned

Two decades later, the tables have seemingly turned. Hezbollah can no longer assert its influence over the formation of Lebanon's new government and, in a notable departure from precedent, the draft government statement—traditionally a tool for consolidating the group's influence—made no mention of legitimising its weapons.

The deployment of the Lebanese army in the south of the country as part of a ceasefire deal reached with Israel, the toppling of Hezbollah's ally in Damascus, and the closure of arms corridors along the Syrian border further cement the string of devastating blows to Hezbollah.

Syria's new interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, who replaced Bashar al-Assad, has himself echoed sentiments similar to those expressed by Aoun when he said Syria, too, is "tired of war and fighting others' wars". The two leaders are now squarely focused on rebuilding their war-ravaged countries and establishing healthy diplomatic relations based on equal footing—a stark departure from the decades of Syrian tutelage over Lebanon.

Nasrallah—who had once stood among the mourners at Hafez al-Assad's funeral a quarter of a century ago and whose family received a condolence cable from Bashar al-Assad following his assassination last September—was laid to rest without any representatives from the Assad family or Hamas leadership in attendance—having also been targeted by Israel in Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza.

Despite attempts to demonstrate Hezbollah's strength, the abovementioned factors underscore the opposite. For its part, Iran fully grasps the magnitude of its losses and is now recalibrating its regional strategy, especially with the new administration of Donald Trump in power in Washington.