America's 'betrayal' of Ukraine is nothing new

Recalibrated policies

The oft-repeated adage that "Nations have neither permanent friends nor enemies, only permanent interests" has been echoed ad nauseam across social media and political discourse. It is entirely reasonable for states to recalibrate their policies in light of shifting geopolitical realities or even domestic considerations.

The US is known to be casualty-averse and tends to refrain from sending its troops in harm's way if it can be avoided. Perhaps Trump, looking at the heavy casualties incurred during three years of war in Ukraine, wants to avoid the possibility of a wider conflict that could draw in US troops. But even though there are no American troops actively fighting in Ukraine (although some mercenaries and volunteers have died fighting there), the staggering cost of the war alone could have been reason enough for Trump to slam the breaks.

The Trump administration places it at $177bn—a figure that, according to experts, is likely inflated and fails to account for the fact that much of it was reinvested into boosting the US defence industry.

Despite this extensive support, Ukraine's grievances remain unchanged since 24 February 2022, when President Vladimir Putin launched his "special military operation." The territories occupied and annexed by Russia—though internationally recognised as Ukrainian—remain firmly under Russian military control.

From Kyiv's perspective, the Kremlin's existential threat looms as large as ever, compelling Ukraine to pursue its bid for NATO membership even more forcefully. 

Moscow, however, has remained steadfast in its demands for security guarantees, insisting that Ukraine must not be granted NATO membership and remain a neutral buffer country between Russia and NATO states in Europe.

Diplomacy begins

Trump—who boasted on the campaign trail that he would end the war within 24 hours of taking office—has unsurprisingly failed to deliver on his grandiose promise. But as we all know, conflicts cannot be resolved overnight, so his comments were largely taken with a grain of salt at the time he made them.

But now Trump's administration appears to have gotten the diplomatic ball rolling to end the conflict through a direct call between Trump and Putin and a meeting between the US and Russian foreign ministers in Riyadh.

Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spent more than a year scrambling to secure alternative sources of support as the once-steady flow of American aid becomes increasingly uncertain. It appears inevitable that he, too, will join the long list of leaders who have suffered from the American Withdrawal Syndrome.