Trump walks back timeline for ending the war in Ukraine

In strict military terms, Putin's gamble has failed miserably. Having failed to meet its initial objective of capturing Kyiv, the Russian military has barely increased the amount of Ukrainian territory it occupies beyond the disputed areas of eastern Ukraine that it first occupied in the spring of 2014.

In the meantime, the Russian military has suffered catastrophic losses, with the latest Western intelligence efforts indicating the Russians have lost a staggering 840,000 dead and wounded during the past three years of intense fighting. At the same time, the Russian economy has been badly hit by the impact of Western sanctions imposed in retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine, while Russian aggression has resulted in NATO expanding its membership, with previously neutral Finland and Sweden signing up to its ranks.

In such circumstances, Putin will be desperate for a deal that in some way justifies the enormous cost, both in terms of blood and money, that Russia has paid for its war on Ukraine.

Consequently, the outcome of any future peace talks will depend to a large extent on the outcome of Trump's initial engagement with Putin, with White House officials indicating that the first contact between the two leaders will take place in February.

Tough talk

As a precursor to opening a dialogue with the Russian leader, Trump has already made his feelings known in a recent post on his Truth Social website, in which he urged Putin to end the fighting in Ukraine or face the prospect of even more punishing measures.

"I'm going to do Russia, whose Economy is failing, and President Putin, a very big FAVOR," he wrote.

"Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous War! IT'S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE. If we don't make a 'deal', and soon, I have no other choice but to put high levels of Taxes, Tariffs, and Sanctions on anything being sold by Russia to the United States and various other participating countries."

Previously, Trump told a news conference in Washington that he would be talking to Putin "very soon", and it "sounds likely" that he would apply more sanctions if the Russian leader did not come to the table.

To date, the Kremlin's response has been muted, with Dmitry Peskov, Putin's spokesman, saying the Kremlin remains "ready for an equal dialogue, a mutually respectful dialogue".

Putin, meanwhile, indicated his willingness to engage with Trump in a Russian television interview, describing the US president as a "clever and pragmatic man" who is focused on America's best interest.

"We'd better meet and have a calm conversation on all issues of interest to both the US and Russia based on today's realities," Putin said.

While Putin has said repeatedly that he is prepared to negotiate an end to the war, he remains insistent that Ukraine will have to accept the reality of Russian territorial gains, which are currently about 20% of its land. He also refuses to accept Ukraine joining NATO.

Possible sticking point

One possible sticking point in the negotiating process could be Putin's refusal to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom he claims is "illegitimate" as a ruler.

"If (Zelensky) wants to participate in the negotiations, I will allocate people to take part," Putin said, calling the Ukrainian leader "illegitimate" because his presidential term expired during martial law.

Zelensky has responded by claiming Putin is "afraid" of peace talks and is using "cynical tricks" to avoid negotiating an end to the conflict. Zelensky insists there is an opportunity to achieve "real peace" and blamed Putin for frustrating efforts to stop the fighting.

"Today, Putin once again confirmed that he is afraid of negotiations, afraid of strong leaders, and does everything possible to prolong the war," Zelensky wrote on X.

While the Trump administration clearly has a lot of work to do if it is to succeed in launching peace talks later this year, concerns have also been raised that the US president may force Ukraine to accept unpalatable demands in order to secure a deal, an arrangement that could jeopardise the future security of Europe.

Many European leaders fear that any deal that enables Putin to claim victory will simply encourage the Russian leader in the belief that the application of military force to achieve Moscow's strategic goals is entirely justified—a view that could ultimately lead to a direct confrontation between Russia and Europe.