Trump's vow to free Israeli hostages may fall short

Prior to travelling to Doha, Washington's incoming envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, expressed confidence that a deal could soon be completed, commenting, "We're making a lot of progress, and I don't want to say too much because I think they're doing a really good job back in Doha.

While the Trump team is not formally part of the Doha talks, which also include delegations from Israel and Hamas, they have been working alongside officials from the outgoing Biden administration, including Brett McGurk, the Biden administration's Middle East representative. Witkoff has travelled to the region several times since his appointment in November.

"We're working in tandem in a really good way," said Witkoff. "But it's the president — his reputation, the things that he has said — that is driving this negotiation; so hopefully it'll all work out, and we'll save some lives."

Hurdles remain

A senior Arab diplomat involved in the talks reported that Hamas had approved a list of 34 hostages it was prepared to free as part of a ceasefire deal. The list included female Israeli soldiers, plus elderly, female and minor-aged civilians.

Some of the names are of hostages who have already died in captivity, with US officials indicating that only 20 of those taken captive during the October 7 attacks are still alive. The situation is further complicated by Hamas's insistence that it does not know the location of all of the hostages.

Despite the personal political capital that Trump, who prides himself on his close ties with Israel, has invested in securing the hostages' release, many hurdles still need to be overcome before any deal can be reached, with both sides raising the same objections that have thwarted previous attempts by the Biden administration to implement a ceasefire.

Hamas continues to insist it will only agree to free the remaining hostages if Israel agrees to end the war and withdraw all its troops from the Gaza Strip. Israel says it will not end the war until Hamas is dismantled and all the hostages are freed.

Entrenched positions

The deeply entrenched positions on both sides were reflected in their respective comments on the Doha talks, with Eden Bar Tal, the director general of Israel's foreign ministry, insisting that "Hamas is the only obstacle to the release of the hostages."

Meanwhile, Hamas official Osama Hamdan told a news conference in Algiers that Israel was to blame for undermining efforts to reach an agreement and reiterated Hamas's main conditions that a deal could only be reached after the Israelis agreed to  "a complete end to the aggression and a full withdrawal from lands the occupation invaded." Responding to Trump's previous threats, Hamdan cautioned, "I think the US president must make more disciplined and diplomatic statements."

This prompted Trump to issue yet another threat to Hamas, warning that if the hostages were not released soon,  "All hell will break out in the Middle East, and it will not be good for Hamas, and it will not be good—frankly, for anyone."

Securing the release of all the remaining hostages ahead of his inauguration nevertheless remains a major challenge for Trump, and failure to do so could prove highly embarrassing for the US leader after his forthright intervention.

The challenges of locating all the remaining hostages, whether they are dead or alive, was highlighted after Israeli forces recovered the bodies of two Israeli captives from a tunnel in Rafah in southern Gaza on Wednesday.

One of the bodies was identified as Youssef Ziyadne, a 53-year-old Israeli-Bedouin from Rahat who was the father of 18 children.  The second body is widely presumed to be his 22-year-old son, Hamza, but this has not been formally confirmed.

Trump's decision to secure the release of all the remaining Israeli hostages before he takes office may have helped to revive the ceasefire talks. But there are no guarantees the president-elect's intervention will achieve his desired outcome.