On 6 January, Justin Trudeau, Canada’s prime minister, announced his resignation after weeks of speculation and a mounting political crisis. The Liberal Party has won three successive elections since 2015 under his leadership. But over the past year, he has become an isolated and deeply polarising figure as supporters have abandoned the party, angry that it has failed to tackle inflation, housing costs and the strains from high immigration. In the coming weeks, the Liberals will be gripped by a leadership struggle. Canada faces an election which must be held by October. It will be fought over his deeply flawed legacy, and how the next government responds to a looming trade war, geopolitical risks and a sluggish economy.
“This country deserves a real choice in the next election,” Mr Trudeau said. “It has become clear to me that if I am having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election.” He joins a growing list of progressive leaders done in by their failure to address the anxieties of ordinary voters, many of whom are shifting to populist parties. Among those crowing over his exit will be President-elect Donald Trump, whose contempt has been laid bare recently in a stream of social media posts, dismissing Mr Trudeau as the “governor” of “the Great State of Canada” and urging Canadians to consider becoming the 51st member of the United States. The rampant Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, will be watching who the Liberals pick next and eyeing a landslide election victory.
Mr Trudeau’s arc has been vertiginous. He took his Liberal Party from third place to a majority mandate in 2015 by winning over a wide swath of the electorate, including the working-class, indigenous and first-time voters. He championed the causes that animated progressive politics a decade ago, such as climate change and minority rights. He won praise in his first term for reducing child poverty and negotiating with a truculent first-term President Trump to renew the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Elections in 2019 and 2021 saw him return with reduced support and minority mandates. Much of his political capital was squandered when the Liberals failed to recalibrate in the wake of the pandemic, as voters’ priorities shifted to inflation, housing and immigration. Mr Trudeau and his party offered pious sermons that railed against their Conservative rivals’ coarser tactics rather than pragmatic solutions to the problems that bedevilled anxious voters.
