From the roar of revolution to the science of statehood

From the outset, commanders like al-Sharaa sent clear and reassuring signals, pledging to uphold state institutions, avoid sectarian retaliation, protect the rights and rituals of minorities, safeguard private and public property, and ensure the continuity of government operations. This principled approach greatly facilitated their victories from Aleppo to Hama, Homs, and Damascus, culminating in Assad's flight. 

Building principles

The guiding principles set by the HTS leadership stand in stark contrast to Assad's morally bankrupt regime, his long refusal to step aside, and his willingness to burn the country and its people just to stay in power. The values of the revolution resonated in towns and villages yearning for change and weary after 14 years of civil war. 

These principles, if enacted, will usher in a period of liberation and unity, offering Syrians a chance to rebuild on the foundations of hope and resilience. But principles are merely a first step. There are numerous other challenges and questions facing Syria's new leadership.

Relations with Israel are one. Israel's armed forces have penetrated a demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights to within striking distance of Damascus, occupied the summit of Mount Hermon, and destroyed Syria's strategic assets, including its aircraft, ships, factories, laboratories, and airports. All of Syria is now effectively demilitarised. How will the new Syria navigate that, without causing a war?

Incorporating all

Another key factor is how Syria's new leaders deal with the remnants of the Assad regime and state institutions. Since HTS entered Damascus, it has prioritised a smooth transition of power, coordinating with the interim government, and telling civil servants and schools to resume normal operations. Yet preserving state institutions while holding criminals accountable poses a significant challenge.

Moreover, how will Syria stop countries like Iran (an Assad ally) from exploiting and recruiting the regime's remnants, including from the army and security services? As the Idlib-based rebels advanced toward Damascus, the army command disbanded and soldiers fled. Plans are now underway to dismantle the old state security apparatus and build a new Syrian army, but what of the tens of thousands of soldiers who served under Assad? 

Will they be included, or will they be left out? If left vulnerable to extremists' recruitment, could they end up pointing their guns at Syria's new leaders? The experience of post-Saddam Iraq serves as a stark warning. Disbanding the military and security forces there created chaos, fuelling instability both internally and externally. Syria must balance accountability with stability and the need to rebuild national unity.

The Kurdish question

A significant factor at the dawn of a new post-Assad Syria will be the country's huge and largely self-governing Kurdish minority, based in the north-east, with a de facto capital in Qamishli. It is important for Damascus to distinguish between Syrian Kurds, represented by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which is widely recognised as a terrorist organisation. They require separate approaches.

The rights of Syrian Kurds can and should be addressed within the framework of a unified Syria, but the challenge of the PKK's presence in Syria is more difficult. How can dialogue between Damascus and Qamishli pave the way for a new relationship allowing Kurdish self-administration while preserving Syria's territorial integrity? And how can the SDF be integrated into the new Syrian army to foster unity and stability?

This links to one of the most important and pressing issues for the new Syrian government: how to revitalise the country's economy. Years of systemic corruption have drained Syria's resources, while its oil, gas, and water wealth are now largely under SDF control. Meanwhile, Western sanctions—including the recent extension of the Caesar Act by the US Congress—further exacerbate the crisis. 

Get the basics right

Once the euphoria of regime change subsides, Syrians will demand electricity, food, medicine, and basic services, but the country's infrastructure is in ruins, its wealth has been plundered, and it is still sanctioned, so their urgent needs may not be addressed, risking further instability.

The international community can help. The new tone coming from Damascus has gone down well with Arab and Western nations, and at the United Nations, whose support for any new government will be crucial, but its provision will be conditional on the inclusivity being promised, and a governance structure that gives representation to all factions and communities. 

If that is forthcoming, sanctions could be lifted, and the designation of HTS as a terrorist organisation could be revoked. But even if Syria's new power brokers have the best intentions, creating a governing body that is genuinely inclusive, uniting political and military forces under a shared vision for the future, will be easier said than done.

Laying down arms

A complicating factor will be the armed factions who demonstrated extraordinary courage and discipline to topple Assad, an achievement many thought impossible. They did so by working together, so as fighters advanced from Homs to Damascus, they integrated the southern operations room into the capital's liberation. 

The question now is how to incorporate these factions into a unified state army. That means persuading them to dissolve themselves and hand their weapons over to the nascent state's military structures to use exclusively for the purpose of rebuilding a professional national army. Will they—and their backers—be convinced to do so?

Among those backers is Turkey, whose government representatives were the first foreign delegation to visit Damascus after the regime's fall. Ankara was unwelcome after 2012 and clearly played a significant role in removing Assad. The challenge now will be keeping Syria's Arab identity while fostering regional cooperation with key players like Turkey, whose support has been so crucial.

Navigating dangers

The task of rebuilding a nation scarred by war and division is fraught with peril, but the new leadership is fully aware of these challenges. Since the battle for Aleppo, it has articulated a vision for Syria's future while pointedly reassuring people whose concerns, pains, and aspirations it seems deeply connected to. 

Early signs are good. The interim government has only been in place since March, but it is reassuring that it has already succeeded in governing Idlib. Of course, governing Syria from Damascus is far more complex, but discussions are clearly underway to establish the framework for leadership during the transition.

Syria's new leadership must navigate the dangers and hazards with prudence, inclusivity, and a focus on long-term stability. The people's hopes rest on them building a Damascus of Idlib and Syria—not imposing Idlib on Damascus.