Why Egypt is wary of the 'new Syria'

Global Firepower estimates that the Syrian army comprised 130,000 active personnel, 50,000 reservists, 2,700 tanks, 33 patrol vessels, and 452 military aircraft, including 168 fighter jets and 153 helicopters. Israel has now destroyed these assets—an eerie omen of what Netanyahu's 'New Middle East' could look like.

Heavyweight duo

Egypt and Syria have historically been regional heavyweights ever since the Arab-Israeli started with Israel's founding in 1948. The two countries formed an axis to counter the newly founded state, defining the balance of regional geopolitics for decades to come.

This axis culminated in the formation of the United Arab Republic in 1958, under the leadership of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser. And although the union collapsed only a few years later, the notion of the role of 'frontline states'—countries that share an immediate border with Israel—remained.

A rivalry between Cairo and Damascus over Arab leadership paved the way for the 1967 defeat against Israel, which saw the occupation of the Syrian Golan Heights and the Egyptian Sinai Peninsula. However, renewed coordination in 1973 helped the Egyptian army regain Sinai, but unfortunately, the Syrian army could not liberate the Golan Heights, which continues to be under Israeli control today. Notably, following al-Assad's fall, it was the place Netanyahu chose to deliver a triumphant speech where he declared that it would always be part of Israel.

This leaves Egypt as the sole 'frontline state' capable of repelling an Israeli invasion or attack, given the weak capabilities of surrounding countries' armies. And while a peace treaty between the two countries still stands, it is on very shaky ground given Israel's war on Gaza, which has decimated the Palestinian enclave and made it uninhabitable for its more than 2 million residents.

'Greater Israel' fears

Egypt is especially wary of the rise of Israel's far right, which seems to be pushing its expansionist agenda with little to no restraint by its chief ally in Washington. And a string of successes it has scored against Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' has only emboldened it further in its pursuit of its dream of a 'Greater Israel'.

Israel has already declared the 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria null and void and captured the Syrian-controlled part of the Golan Heights, including the strategic Mount Hermon, and will likely dig in with the end goal of annexing it.

Meanwhile, in northern Gaza, Israel looks to be building infrastructure that points to a protracted presence there. At the same time, it continues to squeeze Palestinians into smaller and smaller spaces closer to the border with Egypt, creating conditions for their voluntary departure.

The possible depopulation of Gaza will put Egypt's peace treaty with Israel under additional strain, something Cairo warned against several times in the past year since the beginning of the Israeli offensive in Gaza.

Now, the two countries seem to be heading toward an inevitable showdown. But if and when that happens, Egypt could find itself in a completely different regional context—one where it will have to fight alone.

And while the Egyptian-Syrian axis ended long ago, in Cairo's mind, it always viewed Damascus as an ally it could turn to if in need. However, given the latest events, Syria will be in no position to lend a helping hand.