Irrespective of which political grouping forms the next Syrian government, it is already clear that the overthrow of the al-Assad regime is likely to have profound implications both for the future of Syria and the region beyond.
While the regime established by Syrian dictator Hafez al-Assad in 1970 became notorious for its brutal repression of the Syrian people, it nevertheless demonstrated a remarkable durability compared with political instability that affected other countries in the region.
Al-Assad’s uncompromising Ba’athist agenda, and in particular the hard line he adopted in peace negotiations related to the Palestinian issue, remained a defining feature of the regime’s outlook—a policy that was maintained after Bashar al-Assad succeeded his father to the Syrian presidency in the summer of 2000.
The Assad clan’s strong anti-Western stance, which frequently resulted in Damascus being involved in direct confrontations with the US and its allies, led to the regime forming a close alliance with not only Iran but also Russia, whose ties with Damascus date back to the Soviet era.
The support provided by both Russia and Iran during Syria’s decade-long civil war proved vital to help prop up the Assad regime as other 'Arab Spring' autocrats were toppled. While Russian warplanes bombed rebel positions in cities like Aleppo, officers from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps provided vital support to the regime’s ground forces, bolstered by large numbers of Hezbollah fighters from neighbouring Lebanon.
Russia, Iran ties put into question
While the sudden removal of President Bashar al-Assad— who is currently in Russia with his close family—provides an opportunity to consolidate the liberation of the Syrian people after decades of brutal repression, it also raises serious questions about the country’s future relationship with former allies such as Russia and Iran. The former Assad allies are now conducting an urgent review of their ties and dealings with the new Syrian government.
The fact that neither Iran nor Russia came to al-Assad's aid in his final hours in power—despite being close allies for decades—has left observers scratching their heads for answers. After Israel dealt Iran-backed groups—particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon—a series of painful blows, Tehran may have calculated that intervening this time around would not be wise, especially given the fact that Syrian government forces were largely unmotivated to fight another bloody war.
Similarly, the Kremlin’s focus on achieving victory in Ukraine meant that Russia was unable to replicate the military support it provided in 2015 to help the al-Assad regime defeat opposition forces.
The inability of both these key allies to come to al-Assad’s rescue prompted NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte to call both countries “unreliable partners”—a statement that may be meant as a warning to other countries seeking to get closer to Moscow or Tehran in the future.
“Russia and Iran were the main backers of the al-Assad regime, and they share the responsibility for the crimes committed against the Syrian people,” said Rutte. “They also proved to be unreliable partners, abandoning al-Assad when he ceased to be of use to them."
“This is a moment of joy but also of uncertainty for the people of Syria and the region. We hope for a peaceful transition of power and an inclusive Syrian-led political process,” Rutte added.
