Six key reasons why Assad fell

2. Al-Assad's recalcitrance

Despite Arab reintegration efforts, many countries were frustrated and sceptical of his intentions. In mid-2023, he was given another chance. This time, Arab normalisation efforts came with conditions: refugee repatriation, the release of detainees, reining in its illicit Captagon trade, and, last but not least, curbing its ties with Iran and Hezbollah. However, instead of acting in good faith, he continued to slow-walk his promises.

3. A hollow army

When HTS took Aleppo so swiftly and easily, it became abundantly clear that the Syrian army lacked both the capability and will to fight. The sheer speed of the army's collapse was astonishing. Years of poverty, corruption and cronyism had taken a clear toll, evidenced by the crumbling of defence lines—one after the other. In stark contrast, opposition factions were disciplined and motivated.

4. A weakened Axis

Another reason why the attack was so successful was that it came fresh on the heels of a severely weakened 'resistance axis' after Israel dealt Iran and its proxies a string of painful blows across Lebanon and Syria. Al-Assad's fall came just a few months after Israel assassinated Hezbollah's Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and most of its top-brass leadership.

And in stark contrast to 2012, when Iranian Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani visited the Syrian battlefield with weapons and fighters, his successor, Esmail Qaani, never set foot once on the Syrian front this year. And as HTS took over Aleppo, Iranian militias retreated.

5. Putin's priorities

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin's priorities have shifted drastically since 2015, when he intervened in the Syrian war. It is now busy fighting in Ukraine after it invaded its Western neighbour in February 2022. Ukraine is far more important to Russia—being in its immediate backyard—than Syria. And US President Joe Biden has spent his final days in power upping the ante in that war by throwing as much military aid and support as possible, as well as greenlighting the use of long-range ATACM missiles to strike into Russian territory.

At such a critical juncture, Putin cannot afford to get bogged down in a war in Syria. He needs to keep the focus on Ukraine ahead of Trump's return to the White House—especially as the president-elect has said he wants a swift conclusion of that war.

In 2015, Soleimani met with Putin, striking an agreement whereby Russia would provide air cover while Iran supplied militias to bolster al-Assad's regime—a strategy that rescued him from imminent collapse. Through difficult and bloody battles, the Syrian government—backed by Moscow and Tehran—was able to claw back control of 63% of the country from a mere 10%. In return, Putin got two strategic military bases: an airbase in Latakia and a naval base in Tartus.

6. Erdoğan's hat trick

With both Iran and Russia distracted, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan eyed an opening and went for it. Apart from the immediate result—al-Assad's fall and Al Sharaa's ascendancy—his vision seems to be predicated on preserving the peace. This means a recognition of Russian influence—i.e. allowing Russia to keep its two military bases—and preserving Syria's state institutions.  

He will seek to uphold Syria's diversity without harming key minorities, including Alawites near Russian bases. There will also be an effort to ensure Syria's unity as a nation through a transitional process bringing together what amounts to the three mini-states within the country via a centralised authority in Damascus. Last but not least, his vision involves severing military supply lines from Tehran to Hezbollah.

What next?

Implementation will undoubtedly be challenging. Syria's future is riddled with complexities, and the path forward is far from smooth. Change will not come easily, and Syria could very well go through a turbulent transition, just like what happened in Iraq and Libya.

But for now, Syrians can finally put to rest a very long and painful chapter of their history. After decades of sacrifice, they deserve to relish in the moment.