Politics

Why did Assad fall so easily?

After over two decades of rule, following three decades of his father Hafez al-Assad's rule, Bashar has fled following a lightning rebel offensive that swept the country

OMAR HAJ KADOUR / AFP

A portrait of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is pictured with its frame broken in a Syrian regime's Political Security Branch facility on the outskirts of the central city of Hama following its capture.

Why did Assad fall so easily?

Omer Onhon

last update on 07 Dec 2024

Rebel forces in Syria have entered Damascus, claiming it is now “free" of Bashar al-Assad, who has reportedly fled the capital, according to a statement on Sunday.

“We declare the city of Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad,” the Military Operations Command wrote in a post on Telegram. The rebels earlier claimed to have entered the capital and taken control of the notorious Saydnaya Military Prison north of Damascus.

It all began on 30 November after well-equipped and highly motivated anti-government forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) captured Aleppo. Since then, major Syrian cities have all fallen in rapid succession. Meanwhile, in the north, the Syrian National Army (SMO) captured Tel Rifaat and is now reportedly massing around Manbij to drive the YPG out of there as well.

These developments certainly benefit Turkey, whose top priorities regarding Syria are neutralising the security threat posed by the YPG and the return of Syrian refugees back to their country. And while Ankara has officially denied any participation in the operation, many believe that it could not have been carried out without Turkey's involvement.

In a recent statement, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan affirmed Turkey's ties with the Syrian opposition throughout the years with the aim of fighting Islamic State (IS) and YPG ‘terrorists’ and that they took the initiative to launch the recent operation on their own, without Turkish involvement.

The official Turkish line is that the operation is the natural result of al-Assad’s own policies and decisions, pointing to the fact that despite being welcomed back into the Arab League, al-Assad did little to address the concerns of his Arab neighbours. In addition, rampant corruption and the proliferation of illicit activities in Syria have contributed to the country’s economic decay, resulting in 90% of the population now living under the poverty line and struggling to survive on $10-15 a month.

Bakr AL KASSEM / AFP — An opposition fighter fires a rocket against Syrian government forces, in the northern outskirts of Syria's west-central city of Hama on December 4, 2024

And while the opposition’s stunning and rapid success on the battlefield has been attributed to the fact that they are much better organised and armed this time around, it is equally true that al-Assad’s support base has grown increasingly tired and unmotivated, given the dire economic conditions in the country. Apart from a tiny sliver of the population that became rich during Syria’s civil war, most of al-Assad’s support base—predominately comprised of an Alawite/Nusayri minority—suffered significant casualties and continues to live in poor economic conditions.

Their motivation to fight back this time around would not be out of love for the Syrian regime but more so out of fear of reprisals from the opposition fighters—with many so-called jihadists among them.

Diplomatic scramble

Meanwhile, Astana summit partners Russia, Iran and Turkey (known as the Astana Three)—who worked together throughout the years to divvy up areas of influence within Syria—are clearly at loggerheads now. Last week, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi explicitly described recent events as a takfirist operation directed by the US and Israel during a joint press conference with Fidan in Ankara last week and indirectly said Turkey was colluding with them to carry out their objectives.

After Friday prayers in Istanbul, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said, “Idlib, Hama, Homs, and of course Damascus is the target. We hope that the march of the opposition will continue without any accidents.” Also on Friday, a trilateral meeting between the foreign ministers of Iraq, Iran, and Syria was held in Baghdad, where Iraq’s foreign minister said his country was currently weighing the pros and cons of intervening in Syria to aid al-Assad.

And on Saturday and Sunday (7-8 December), relevant foreign ministers also regrouped in Doha to discuss the rapid opposition advance in Syria, while Arab League foreign ministers are expected to meet in Cairo at the Damascus government's request.

Al-Assad's support base has grown increasingly tired and unmotivated, given Syria's dire economic situation

Overnight Saturday, anti-Assad fighters took over Homs, located at the crossroads of the main road from Damascus to the coast. Given the city's strategic location, government forces were expected to dig in to defend it, but this did not happen. For its part, Russia was also expected to prevent the opposition from marching on to the Syrian capital, mainly through aerial bombardment, but also ended up not doing anything.

Extremist rebrand

The lightning advance has refocused the spotlight on HTS, which has been on the UN list of terrorist organisations since 2018 and has been designated as such by Turkey, the US, the EU and many other countries and NGOs. In recent months, there has been a concerted effort by the West, particularly in mainstream media, to portray the group as a moderate Islamist organisation that has broken all ties with its Al-Qaeda roots, which has fuelled accusations of American and Western involvement with the group.

On Friday, the American media outlet CNN interviewed Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, the militant leader of the main group driving the country's armed opposition, who finally revealed his real name: Ahmed al-Sharaa—a 'terrorist' the US government had previously put $10mn bounty on. In the interview, al-Jolani said his group plans to establish a government in Syria based on institutions and a popularly-elected council. He also reassured the population—particularly minorities that they "should not fear Islamic governance" and said Christians and other minorities would be safe.

AFP — Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani in the Idlib countryside on February 7, 2023

These statements suggest that there may be a new Taliban-style deal and arrangement in Syria, similar to Afghanistan. HTS is clearly seeking a place for itself in the future governance of Syria, perhaps even a leading governing role. Should they successfully topple the government, they could possibly dissolve and regroup under a different name, the same way the YPG rebranded itself into the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) under the guidance of the Americans.

And while the decline of Iranian influence in Syria would be a welcome development for many Arab countries, some states view the rise of HTS and other Islamist groups in Syria with deep concern. For its part, Israel is undoubtedly happy that Iran's position in Syria looks increasingly tenuous and may be fairly confident that the Syrian opposition will not interfere in its war on Gaza and discriminatory policies towards the Palestinians, but there is no guarantee they will sit idly on the sidelines in the future.

Potential scenarios

The multiple armed groups in northern Syria, just along Turkey's southern border—which include groups like YPG, HTS, SMO and even IS—will likely remain.

Behind-the-scenes negotiations and bargaining will most likely end up determining what a post-Assad Syria looks like

And while the West considers the YPG a partner and ally in the fight against IS, training and equipping the Kurdish group, Turkey sees it as an extension of the PKK terrorist organisation. After the HTS-led offensive, the YPG is understandably worried about what steps Turkey might take and whether it can depend on the Americans to help them—especially under the upcoming presidency of Donald Trump. Interestingly, some contact and cooperation between the YPG and al-Assad had been detected since the beginning of the current developments, evidenced by the fact that the YPG has stepped into areas where the Syrian army has retreated from.

And although Turkey says that it is prepared to confront any threat posed by the YPG and other organisations, some Turkish politicians and analysts are concerned that the developments, now being interpreted as "gains" for Turkey, could backfire on Ankara, should a "Kurdish structure" emerge on its borders in the medium and long-term. These concerns—coupled with the possibility of a dialogue with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan on the agenda—are not entirely unwarranted in the current turmoil and political environment.

What will happen in Syria depends on many factors, such as what the strategic priorities of third parties are and whether the warring parties on the ground will act rationally. Behind-the-scenes negotiations and bargaining will probably end up determining what a post-Assad Syria looks like. And whether or not Ankara was, in fact, involved in the current offensive doesn't dismiss the fact that it will have to be involved going forward, as events in Syria directly impact Turkey.

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