Politics

Syria’s fresh crisis is an opportunity for the Arab world to step up

The signs are bad but there is international agreement when it comes to Syria. If they act now, Arab states can still re-establish control over events, but the usual statements of support won't cut it

Omar Haj Kadour / AFP

A militant poses for a picture after anti-government fighters seized Syrian army military equipment on 3 December 2024.

Syria’s fresh crisis is an opportunity for the Arab world to step up

Ramzy Ezzeldin Ramzy

last update on 03 Dec 2024

Four days ago, just a few hours after the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon was announced, a new crisis in Syria erupted, with renewed fighting centred on Aleppo. It surprised most observers, who had seen the Syrian civil war as a frozen conflict, static since 2019.

The consensus was that Syria’s war had become one the region could live with. Those voicing disagreement were few and far between. Yet some did warn that it was an illusion. They sensed the volcano was about to blow.

On 29 November, the world woke to images of an Islamist gunmen riding motorcycles and trucks into Aleppo, taking Syria’s economic capital. Despite a lack of credible on-the-ground information, the images spoke a thousand words. They also sparked a thousand theories as to what had happened—and why it was happening now.

Questions abound

Analysts were left asking who was behind the assault on Aleppo, who were the main beneficiaries, why was the Syrian army caught off-guard, why did Syrian soldiers show minimal resistance, why have Syrian allies Russia and Iran not intervened, and what role (if any) Israel, Turkey, and the United States played.

Regardless of the answers, in every crisis there is an opportunity, so with some clever thinking, might the rebels’ assault be used to generate a lasting settlement? Amidst all the uncertainty, two main factors need to be considered.

The first has long been anathema but is now a real prospect from January: US-Russia cooperation. US President-elect Donald Trump touts his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin and will soon have the executive authority to work with Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Equally, they could work together over Syria.

The images from Aleppo spoke a thousand words and sparked a thousand theories as to what had happened—and why it was happening now

The second factor relates to the wider Middle East, where war in Gaza and Lebanon have upended states' security policies and strategic calculus. Israel now seeks to exploit the current situation to reshape the region, aligning it with its interests.

Arabs relations with Israel, Iran, Turkey, and the US are consequently being re-evaluated. The US had, for many years, served as the main protector of Arab countries, but is it still? Which foreign states instigated the latest developments in Syria, and what will Trump make of it?

American boots in Syria

While it is too early to define the incoming administration's policy in the Middle East, some of its characteristics are emerging. Removing US troops in Syria as is part of an overall policy of burden-shifting, with Washington hoping to get its regional allies to do more.

Omar Haj Kadour / AFP — Anti-government figthers gesture while riding a motorcycle on the highway to Damascus, as they reach the town of Suran north of Syria's Hama city on December 3, 2024.

Trump tried to get American troops out of Syria during his first term, only to be thwarted by the Pentagon. He will now argue once again that US priorities lie elsewhere, meaning that new security arrangements are needed in the region.

Israel has proposed the Negev Forum as the alternative. This would take the form of a political and military alliance of Israel and some Arab states, directed against Iran. Yet it did not make much difference in Gaza and Lebanon, and seems generally unloved.

Normalising relations

Trump and his highly pro-Israel team will no doubt resume their drive to broaden the Abraham Accords, the set of diplomatic initiatives that Trump sponsored in his first term, that seek to normalise Israel's relations with the Arab world, often is exchange for US weapons or recognition of disputed territory.

Since Trump left office, however, Riyadh has clarified in no uncertain terms that the condition for normalised relations with Tel Aviv is the establishment of a Palestinian state, which the Israelis have ruled out, so Trump's team will need to recalibrate.

Beyond that, any US-Russian thaw will have wider implications for the Middle East and for Syria, where they may seek to find a settlement. For Washington, Syria is not of strategic interest. Its main concern is not letting Iran control it, a concern shared in many Arab capitals—and probably in Moscow, too.

Preventing a failed state

Foreign parties have been involved in the Syrian crisis since its inception and although they have different interests and views over how to bring about a settlement, they all want to avoid the collapse of the Syrian state, which currently seems to be underway.

If it is not urgently and appropriately addressed, this crisis could create a power vacuum and engulf the entire region in a chaos that Arab states can ill afford. The first victims of the contagion will be Syria's immediate neighbours—Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq—followed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the rest of the Gulf.

If it is not urgently addressed, the Syria crisis could create a power vacuum and engulf the entire region in a chaos that Arab states can ill afford

With forces now actively seeking to reshape the region to their own benefit, Arab capitals can no longer afford to be bystanders. They need to act and to act urgently. Syria offers that opportunity. Arab states must stop talking about taking action and take it. Statements of support are now insufficient. Those who limit themselves to this are resigning their agency and condemning themselves to spectatorship.

Arab military support

For those Arab states in a position to do so, their decision not to let the Syrian state fall will mean the provision of some sort of military support, while in parallel, regional powers work on a political approach. Arab countries should take the initiative to implement UN Security Council Resolution 2254 to support the Syrian state.

Adopted in 2015, when circumstances were very different, it remains the internationally-agreed framework for a settlement. Now it needs a plan of action to facilitate its core elements: transition, reconstruction, and free and fair elections under UN supervision. This would create the right conditions to end foreign interference in Syria

The Arab League is due to hold an emergency ministerial meeting in the next few days. This is the opportunity for the Arab states to do something to show that they are still the masters of their region's fate. Thereafter, they need to work with other regional and international parties to take the first steps toward a new Middle East as envisaged in—and by—the Middle East itself.

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