The armed opposition in northwest Syria capitalised on a moment of geopolitical significance to disrupt the fragile status quo, launching a bold military offensive amidst Lebanon’s ceasefire. On 28 November, Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and allied forces initiated a sweeping campaign against regime strongholds in the region. Dubbed “Countering Aggression,” the operation aims to counter the regime’s escalating attacks on civilians and create expanded safe zones where displaced Syrians might return with greater security.
In under 72 hours, opposition forces reclaimed dozens of strategic towns and sites, including areas within the city of Aleppo, and severed the M5 Highway—a vital supply route linking Aleppo to Damascus. These rapid territorial gains have reshaped the frontlines in the north, which had remained stagnant since 2020.
Understanding the unprecedented pace of the regime's territorial losses is critical, as it highlights underlying factors driving the opposition’s success. These developments not only challenge the balance of power in Syria but also carry implications that could influence the region’s trajectory for months or even years to come.
Surprisingly swift gains
The rapid collapse of regime control in northwestern Syria shocked observers, and even the opposition forces themselves, who did not anticipate such swift and easy gains. In just over 48 hours, opposition factions advanced rapidly, securing full control over the western Aleppo countryside and parts of rural Idlib and even recapturing areas inside Aleppo city that had been lost to the regime in 2016.
This operation exposed how thinly spread regime forces were, including along critical frontlines. Their inability to withstand the initial shock of the offensive triggered a domino effect, as one defensive position after another fell. This sequence of retreats across vast and strategically significant areas allowed opposition forces to achieve gains at an unprecedented pace.
Once the regime’s first line of defence collapsed, its forces struggled to regroup. The opposition’s strategy of launching simultaneous attacks on multiple fronts—targeting western Aleppo and parts of Idlib—further stretched regime defences and compounded the disarray.
