Why Syrian forces were caught so off-guard by HTS offensive

Reports suggest that the regime had replaced experienced, Iranian-backed militias, including Hezbollah, with less trained and poorly equipped personnel, which significantly weakened its battlefield performance. Reports suggest that Hezbollah fighters have been pulled back over the past months due to their war with Israel.

Additionally, the battles highlighted a critical vulnerability in the regime's logistics: its supply lines to the frontlines. This logistical weakness hampered the regime's ability to send reinforcements quickly, leaving its defences vulnerable and unable to recover from the initial setbacks.

Russia's limited role

The limited involvement of Russian air support was a significant factor in the rapid collapse of regime defensive lines. Since Moscow's military intervention in Syria in 2015, Russian jets have been central to the regime's defensive and offensive strategies.

During the 2019 northwest offensive, Russian air strikes devastated opposition-held frontline villages, rendering them uninhabitable. Even during the so-called four-year "ceasefire," Russian forces regularly conducted large-scale bombing campaigns in Idlib, often as punitive measures in response to minor opposition attacks.

In the latest offensive, however, Russian air strikes have been sporadic and lacked the intensity seen in previous campaigns. During the first 48 hours, Russian jets were notably absent, with limited strikes reported.

The most significant bombardment occurred late on 27 November, targeting Atareb and areas near Saraqib. On 28 November, a Russian air strike hit a residential area in Atareb, killing 14 civilians. Later the same day, there was a reported increase in air strikes near Saraqib as a response to the opposition's initial advances.

This reduced involvement could be tied to Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, which have led to the redeployment of forces and aircraft. Additionally, the absence of Russian commanders—who previously played a crucial role in coordinating Syrian regime units during opposition offensives—may have exacerbated the disarray within the regime's chain of command, contributing to their rapid retreats.

More organised opposition

The offensive has highlighted the growing professionalisation of opposition forces, which has contributed to their swift victories and enhanced effectiveness on the battlefield. This professionalisation is rooted in years of institutional development, including the establishment of military academies and specialised training programmes.

These institutions have not only refined the opposition's combat skills but have also introduced advanced tactics and technologies. For instance, specialised units trained in nighttime combat have played a pivotal role in recent operations and demonstrated superior operational capability in nighttime assaults.

Furthermore, the opposition's arsenal has expanded and diversified, reflecting enhanced technical expertise. Opposition forces have reportedly developed or acquired new weaponry, such as makeshift "cruise missiles" and other advanced munitions. These innovations allow for greater precision in targeting regime forces, particularly in fortified positions, and have amplified the impact of their attacks.

Another key factor is the opposition's ability to maintain coordination across various factions. Despite historical rivalries, opposition groups have worked together to synchronise their attacks across multiple fronts. This cooperation has prevented regime forces from effectively regrouping or reinforcing their positions, further compounding their losses. By avoiding the public naming of participating factions, the operation has fostered a sense of unity and minimised potential discord, allowing for more harmonious collaboration.

The opposition's swift gains in the latest offensive can, in part, be attributed to their strategic shift toward the increased use of drones, marking a significant evolution in their military capabilities. For the first time, these groups have openly employed drones not just for surveillance but for offensive operations, signalling a transformative leap in their approach to modern warfare.

Videos from the battlefield reveal the widespread deployment of drones during the campaign. Opposition forces utilised various types of drones—many of which appear to be locally manufactured or modified for military use. Some drones were launched by hand, while others used platforms of unknown origin. These drones were armed with munitions, including homemade bombs and lightweight projectiles, enabling precision strikes on regime fortifications, armoured vehicles, and personnel.

By leveraging drones for precision strikes, they have enhanced their ability to disrupting regime forces, neutralising advanced fortifications and breaking through defensive lines, accelerating the pace of the offensive.. This evolution underscores the growing sophistication of opposition tactics in a conflict marked by rapidly changing methods of warfare.

While the opposition's recent gains are undeniably significant, the real challenge lies ahead: maintaining control of these territories once the regime mobilises reinforcements to reclaim its losses. Regardless of which side ultimately emerges victorious in this round of fighting, it is unlikely to mark the end of hostilities.

Flawed approach

The ongoing escalation underscores a deeper issue—the international community's flawed approach to managing Syria's "frozen" conflict. By failing to prioritise a meaningful political resolution or address the regime's persistent violations in the northwest, the international community has inadvertently created conditions ripe for continued violence. In this context, it is unsurprising that opposition forces have turned to military means to achieve what diplomacy has repeatedly failed to deliver.

Breaking this cycle of violence requires more than temporary ceasefires or tactical agreements. The international community must urgently revive and reinvigorate the long-stalled UN-led political process to chart a viable path toward a lasting peace. Without a committed push for a comprehensive political solution, Syria's conflict will remain trapped in an endless loop of violence and retaliation.