Events in Syria and Lebanon suggest maps could be redrawn

Many Lebanese politicians say a path out of the current catastrophic situation centres on "revitalising Taif" and ensuring adherence to its provisions. Even Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem recently said the party would operate "under the framework of Taif," which allocates official positions equally between Christians, Sunnis, and Shiites, and grants extensive powers to the Council of Ministers as a collective entity. 

However, this rhetoric lacks substance. Almost everything since 2005—including the 2014 commitment to neutrality in Arab conflicts, the dramatic expansion of Hezbollah's military power, and the obstruction of the investigation into the 2020 Beirut Port explosion—reveal these as empty statements. 

It has also fuelled proposals for alternatives, such as federalism, or granting Christians additional constitutional guarantees, in contrast to the impracticality of returning to a centralised state governed by entrenched political dynasties that have dominated Lebanese politics for decades.

Bitten off in chunks

In Syria, similar patterns emerge. The ruling Arab Socialist Baath Party arguably cannot resume its governance, given that the model had already failed before civil war in 2011 resulted in Syria's fragmentation into a collection of semi-autonomous entities, the most prominent of which is the SDF in the north and east. 

Then there are developments in al-Suwayda Province, with its Druze majority, or the tense anticipation in Daraa since the Russian-brokered reconciliations. Yet revisiting Syria's political system remains taboo, even for those most opposed to President Bashar al-Assad. Blood would flow if anyone tried to dismantle the Kurdish self-rule regions, which exist as de facto autonomous areas.

Syria straddles two distinct political models: one Turkish, and the other Iraqi. Turkey is a centralised national state experiencing deep ethnic unrest since the Ottoman era, initially with Armenians, then later with Kurds demanding rights. Over the decades, Turkey's centralised and nationalist state has moved from rigid secularism to tempered political Islam, yet neither has resolved the Kurdish question. 

Kurds in Iraq, by contrast, have secured constitutionally recognised autonomy, after decades of conflict with the central government in Baghdad. Although relations between Baghdad and Erbil are far from loving, there is no existential threat facing the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, at least for now.

So, with profound fractures in Lebanon and Syria, it may be time to acknowledge that clinging to outdated remedies for such chronic ailments has not healed these states in any way, shape, or form. New frameworks for governance, partnership, and power-sharing may therefore be required. 

While the path to finding effective and appropriate end outcomes remains long and requires both humility and a recognition of the region's realities, broadly the notion of 'unity' may either need to be replaced with 'plurality within unity'… or else, with an amicable separation.