As Lebanon’s war ends, hard truths emerge

Some Lebanese had threatened retaliation against Hezbollah and its allies, citing grievances going back many years, but the civil clashes that some predicted did not arrive with the waves of displaced families. This is a small comfort.

That clashes were avoided does not mean, however, that Lebanon's internal and sectarian relations are now mended. Interpretations of the war's outcomes and purpose vary widely, as do the conclusions drawn by its various factions. 

Winners and losers

Those aligned to—and supportive of—the 'Shiite duo' (Amal and Hezbollah) think the war was designed to strip them of privileges they feel they earned through blood and sacrifice. Others think Israel's offensive against Hezbollah—including attacks on its social and health services—was a deliberate effort to reshape Lebanon's post-war political landscape from its pre-war set-up.  

Adding to the tension is the near-total international silence regarding Lebanon's plight during the conflict. This contrasts sharply to the huge protests worldwide in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. Some say this suggests that public support for Hezbollah has eroded. Others dispute that. Regardless, Lebanon's social reality remains precarious. 

More than a million Lebanese have fled their homes, seeking refuge both within the country and outside it. Given the sheer scale of destruction, many who fled will have no homes or livelihoods to return to. This bodes ill in a land known for its sectarian tension. Across social media platforms and even traditional media outlets, hostility that was perhaps kept under wraps during the war is already being voiced.

Pressure valve released

Amidst Lebanon's social and political instability, with reconstruction funding not yet forthcoming, storm clouds gather. If anyone does decide to offer the country the billions it needs to rebuild homes and infrastructure, the money will likely come with political conditions attached.

As the gossip started, some said certain Lebanese factions were keen for Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli army to do their bidding for them, helping to settle internal scores that they could not. In Lebanon, foreign powers have been used to resolve domestic rivalries for at least 150 years. In all that time, this strategy has never been successful.

Still, the changes brought about by Israeli bombs are enticing all parties to capitalise. Some are betting that any new pro-Western administration will prevent Hezbollah from re-establishing domestic dominance and, more broadly, that Lebanon's more powerful neighbours will revert to their customary interventions every so often in favour of their preferred factions. Cue the next cycle of misplaced hopes.