Amid a distant peace, Trump eyes a Nobel Prize

During his first term, Trump recruited some officials on account of their expertise. Many were abruptly dismissed (sometimes via surprise tweets). This time, his team appears to have been picked for their unwavering loyalty to him and the tenets of Trumpism, those willing to serve "at the pleasure of the president," irrespective of any convictions.

World leaders have also been quick to establish direct personal relationships with Trump, recognising that under him, 'loyalty to the leader' often outweighs institutional dynamics. Two additional factors stand out. 

One is Trump's 2024 victory in both the popular vote and the Electoral College, coupled with Republican majorities in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, giving him unprecedented leverage.  Second is the eagerness with which his swiftly-assembled team seems to want to start reshaping America and the world according to his vision. This includes trying to bypass Senate approval for some appointments, lest there by any resistance from the remnants of the traditional Republican establishment.

With Republicans and conservatives controlling the legislature, the executive, and the judiciary (i.e. the Supreme Court), there are now very few checks and balances on Joe Biden's successor, so the world is bracing itself for Trump Unfiltered. 

Preparing for Trump

Stakeholders are manoeuvring to bolster their negotiating positions or establish 'realities on the ground' that will limit Trump's strategic choices. In Lebanon, negotiations and military strikes are locked in a precarious race. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seeks either to secure the most advantageous deal possible or to eliminate Hezbollah as a fighting force.

Iran knows there is a race against time, so it is seeking to exert its own form of maximum pressure on Israel via increased missile attacks from Hezbollah. Meanwhile, Biden wants to go out on a high note by announcing a 60-day ceasefire in Lebanon before he leaves office while leaving the broader contours of any final agreement for Trump.

In Gaza, calls for ceasefire negotiations and hostage exchanges have gained significant momentum, but the complexities here are far deeper, rooted in the broader and more contentious implications for the Palestinian cause. 

This underscores the importance of Arab-Islamic efforts at the Riyadh Summit, where the revival of the two-state solution—and the formal recognition of a Palestinian state—are firmly back on the agenda ahead of Trump's involvement.

Read more: Arab-Islamic Summit: An opportunity to advance the two-state solution

A whole new world

The Middle East has undergone a profound transformation since the signing of the Abraham Accords a few years ago. Regional dynamics have shifted markedly, creating a vastly altered geopolitical landscape. For instance, when Trump left office, Saudi Arabia and Iran were the bitterest of enemies. They are now on talking terms.

Trump has boldly claimed that he can "end the war" in Ukraine in one day, attributing this to his personal relationship with Vladimir Putin. Leaked details of his plan suggest a pragmatic yet controversial approach recognising the status quo (accepting Russia's control of eastern Ukraine), creating a buffer zone, and securing Ukraine's agreement to delay NATO membership for two decades.

Ahead of Trump's tenure, Ukraine's allies have acted swiftly, lifting restrictions on the use of Western missiles in Russian territory. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot emphatically stated that there are "no red lines" regarding arms support for Kyiv. These actions, together with a surge in Western military aid, are not aimed at defeating Russia but bolstering Ukraine's negotiating position ahead of an era of "Trumpian" diplomacy.

As a result, recent discussions between NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and Trump have not been plain sailing. Communications between European leaders and the incoming president are likewise focused. 

The China challenge

China presents an even more intricate challenge. Trump and his team have been overtly antagonistic towards Beijing, proposing tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports to bolster US industries. However, this does not extend to plans for direct military confrontation over Taiwan. 

Balancing this will prove arduous for some Arab and European states that rely heavily on Chinese goods, particularly those involving sensitive military components, or countries with significant trade balances tied to Beijing.

Under Biden, the US-China relationship was multifaceted, with commercial competition, climate cooperation, and geopolitical rivalry. This nuanced approach was evident in Biden's recent farewell meeting with President Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit in Brazil. In contrast, Trump's policy will be more binary or unilateral, with costly economic competition straining not just US-China relations but also those of their allies.

In short, it is a different world that Trump now aspires to lead and from which he aspires to claim the Nobel Peace Prize. International conflicts have grown more intense while the prospects of peace have dwindled.

Will Trump join Roosevelt, Wilson, Carter, and Obama as Nobel Laureates? Or will he be more like Soviet leader Joseph Stalin, who was nominated twice (first in 1945 for his role in ending World War II) but ultimately failed to get the nod? Time will tell.