Iran-Israel strikes normalise the militarisation of the Middle East

Iran responded to the killing of Nasrallah and Haniyeh with almost 200 ballistic missiles. Israel responded to that in late October, striking three strategic regions in Iran, including Tehran—a city not directly hit since the Iran-Iraq war in the early 1980s.

Nasrallah had always been deemed a "red line" by the Iranians. Had Tel Aviv killed him or bombed Tehran years earlier, the two regional foes would likely have plunged into a state of all-out war. So why hasn't it happened now?

The answer lies in the gradual escalation of direct confrontations and, to an extent, their careful choreography, with recent events tracing an intensifying spiral. In April, Iran's response was telegraphed and measured, as was Israel's. Targets were carefully chosen, and the timing was deliberate. One way or another, the attackers made sure that the attacked knew what was coming and could prepare.

The October confrontations, however, have been markedly broader, deeper, and more aggressive than those of April. Iran's ballistic missiles targeted Israeli military sites across wider and more strategically significant areas, giving Israel less of a response time than in April when it (and its allies) had hours to deploy defences.

Likewise, most recently, Israeli aircraft struck Iranian and Russian S-300 missile defence systems and facilities producing drones and missiles, then uncharacteristically acknowledged responsibility for these attacks, emphasising its strikes were against "strategic targets".

Tiptoeing between all-out war

One of the main reasons why Israel and Iran are not currently at war is because of a meticulously calibrated US strategy underpinning the strikes after weeks of exchanged messages and warnings. Interestingly, nothing tipped the scales. For instance, Tel Aviv chose not to release video and images of its aerial bombing of Tehran, which would have humiliated the Iranian regime. This stands in stark contrast to Israel's recent bombing at Yemen's Hodeida port, where the devastation was widely broadcast across the Middle East.

Additionally, Israel did not target Iran's nuclear programme or its oil facilities, with the US specifically saying it would not support this. Striking Iranian refineries, for instance, could have destabilised the region and potentially harmed US Vice President Kamala Harris's election prospects.

Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu made his point—that Israel can strike deep into Iranian territory and bypass its air defence systems. Yet he also let Iran 'save face'. As such, Iran tempered its response, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei saying events "should neither be understated nor exaggerated".

Netanyahu's US lens

As Netanyahu aligned with US President Joe Biden's stipulations to leave Iran's nuclear and oil infrastructure untouched, Biden deployed two American top-end THAAD missile defence systems to Israel (plus 100 soldiers), giving protective cover to Israeli aircraft flying over Syria and Iraq. He also reaffirmed America's commitment to defend Israel against any Iranian military action. However, his careful management of this conflict cycle aims to ensure that it is the last major escalation of his term of office, which ends in early January.

Netanyahu hopes that Republican Donald Trump returns to the White House, given that he is far more likely than Harris to approve the use of US military forces to attack Iran. The escalating tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran suggest that this may be an end outcome despite the old, familiar strategies so far keeping escalation in check.

Still, there is a danger of complacency—of sleepwalking into war. Today, Israel's strike against Syria, Yemen, Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran have become so 'normal' that they barely register as news. The Middle East is therefore now experiencing 'military normalisation'. This brings risk.

While there remains an underlying continuity that offers a measure of restraint, the region's embers seem to have lit a new fire. Its shadow wars are no longer being fought off-stage. Suddenly, the curtain has been pulled back, the lights are up, and everyone is watching.