Emerging powers in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East have showered US President-elect Donald Trump with congratulations since he won the election. The general response from these countries—with a few notable exceptions such as Brazil and Mexico—has been much warmer than it was after outgoing President Joe Biden’s win in 2020.
“You are my favourite president,” Argentine President Javier Milei said in a call with Trump last week. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto offered to fly to the president-elect to congratulate him in person. Meanwhile, Indian External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently said, “I know today a lot of countries are nervous about the US (election), ok—let’s be honest about it. We are not one of them.”
Other emerging powers have expressed optimism about future relations. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, “We expect our dear friend Trump to abandon the erroneous policies of the previous administration in his second term,” and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu stated that he believes Trump’s return to the White House will “usher in an era” of beneficial economic partnerships between the United States and Africa.
These positive reactions contrast with Trump’s reception in many other parts of the world, including much of Europe, where leaders have long expressed concerns about his return. This was foreshadowed in an Economist poll before the election, which found that, unlike most Europeans, a plurality of citizens in many parts of the rest of the world wanted Trump to win.
What is going on?
These leaders may be hoping for a special relationship with Trump after learning from his first term that he places a high value on personal connections. Ideological affinity may also play a role—many of these leaders are strongmen and perhaps see something of themselves in Trump’s style. But there are probably deeper reasons, as well.
One is that emerging powers likely expect that Trump will not push them on democracy, social issues, and human rights. Trump’s focus on economics and his transactional approach to foreign policy is attractive to many of these nations, especially those with poor human rights records.
Ideological affinity may play a role—many leaders of emerging powers are strongmen and perhaps see something of themselves in Trump's style
For example, Thai Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan has said that Trump's victory is "pro-business" and claimed that a deepening US-China trade war, which Trump has threatened, could benefit Thailand economically. Thailand is also facing political turmoil and democratic backsliding after a chaotic transition of power this year. With Trump in office, the Thai government may hope to escape the kind of criticism it faced from Washington during the Biden administration.
Trump will also take a different approach to the climate crisis and natural resource exploitation around the world. Many emerging powers feel stymied by Biden's focus on climate and sustainability. For example, the Biden administration has worked with other Western countries to slow funding for fossil fuel projects overseas in a bid to combat global warming. This is a laudable goal, but it has frustrated leaders of some African nations, especially ones that rely on oil and gas projects to meet their energy needs and generate economic growth.
In the long term, emerging powers could suffer from Trump's climate policies because they are vulnerable to climate-related disasters. But many are focused on the near term. Energy exporters, such as Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, may hope to benefit from a relaxation of international pressure on the use of fossil fuels. (They may be in for a surprise, however, if Trump follows through on his promise to increase US energy exports in an effort to drive down gas prices.)
Emerging powers that want to use other natural resources to generate economic growth may also see Trump's election as an opening. In Indonesia, for example, US scrutiny over environmental standards in its nickel sector is currently one of the obstacles to a potentially lucrative critical minerals deal with the United States.
In other cases, emerging powers may hope to see their economic ties to Washington expand under Trump. He has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 60% on all goods from China, and this could deflect trade in their direction. Even with a more protectionist trade policy, the Trump administration might find ways to negotiate mutually beneficial economic deals with emerging powers.
India, for instance, had been negotiating a mini deal—a trade agreement limited to a few specific sectors—with Trump at the end of his first term. Negotiations fell through, but India will likely want to pick up where it left off. Since the election, New Delhi has also indicated that it is open to easing market access for US firms if Washington reciprocates.
Incoming US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a meeting in New Delhi, February 25, 2020.
Despite these hopes, emerging powers also have plenty of reasons to be nervous about what lies ahead.
Economists predict that Trump's tariffs on China will hurt the global economy overall. And if he goes ahead with his plan for a universal tariff of up to 20% on US imports, this could come with serious direct costs for emerging powers—especially those whose economies are heavily dependent on exports to the United States, such as Southeast Asian countries. The advisory firm Oxford Economics recently estimated that Trump's universal tariff might cause US imports from all countries in Asia besides China to fall by 3% and US exports to the region to fall by 8%.
Trump's victory also introduces specific challenges for a few emerging powers. Take Mexico, for example. Trump has threatened a tariff between 25 and 100% on Mexican goods if the country does not do more to stop the flow of migrants and drugs to the US border—a move that could severely damage Mexico's economy. In response, Mexico's economy secretary, Marcelo Ebrard, threatened to strike back with tariffs, and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has said that Mexico won't surrender to economic coercion.
Emerging powers in China's backyard, such as Thailand and Indonesia, may also struggle to navigate US-China military tensions, which seem likely to rise under Trump. These countries want positive relations with Beijing, even as they seek Washington's assistance to boost their defences against Chinese aggression. US relations with them will become even rockier if the new administration pressures them to pick sides in the event of a military standoff.
Still, emerging powers are inclined to cooperate with the United States, no matter who is in power. So far, Washington has taken an inconsistent approach to these nations. At times, it has sought to expand defence ties with them, but it has recently been hesitant to offer the market access they so badly want. This reluctance puts the United States at a disadvantage when it competes for influence globally with China—and Russia to some degree, as well.
The Trump administration will need to decide how much to prioritise relations with emerging powers. These powers will not be at the centre of Trump's approach to the world, which is heavily focused on Iran and China. But the new administration would be unwise to ignore them or treat them as simple pawns. After all, their geopolitical weight is only growing. This may be an opportune time for Washington to cultivate more positive relations with countries that are poised to hold more power in our increasingly multipolar world.
