Like his predecessors, Trump will keep giving Israel the green light

Past American presidents have typically paid lip service to a Palestinian state, but Trump's actions marked a complete departure from this. He cut aid to the Palestinian Authority, closed the Palestinian representative's office in Washington, recognised Jerusalem as the unified capital of Israel, then relocated the US embassy there, ended funding to the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), and declared that Israel's West Bank settlements did not violate international law.

No longer neutral

From the Madrid Conference in 1991 and Oslo Accords in 1993 to the Camp David talks in 2000, the Annapolis Conference in 2007, and John Kerry's push for peace during Barack Obama's tenure, every president from George H. W. Bush have upheld the image of the US as a neutral mediator between Israel and the Palestinians. 

The Trump administration dismantled this long-standing foreign policy approach entirely, ending the US commitment to a two-state settlement and to the stability of the Palestinian Authority, based in Ramallah.

That said, Trump's actions do not greatly deviate from the broader trajectory of his predecessors. He merely laid bare the reality of American policy, which has consistently been hostile to Palestinian rights, including their right to self-determination and the establishment of an independent state, while offering unwavering support for Israel's policies. 

Although he resumed support for the Palestinian Authority and UNRWA, President Joe Biden did not reverse Trump's other measures, such as moving the embassy back to Tel Aviv or rowing back on settlements. While Biden expressed verbal support for the Palestinians, he also helped Israel kill more than 43,000 Palestinians in Gaza by giving it money and weapons.  

Given that the Palestinians could not get an independent state under presidents such as Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, or Joe Biden, no one thinks they will manage it under Trump and Netanyahu.

American influence  

The US is a world leader economically, technologically, scientifically, and militarily. Its gross domestic product (GDP) of $29tn easily eclipses that of China and Russia combined ($19tn and $2tn, respectively). Much of the world trades in dollars. Indeed, a social media post from the US president can weaken or strengthen other currencies. 

In short, America's influence is unparalleled, and since November's US elections returned Republican majorities in the House and the Senate, so is Trump's. His priorities during his second term are likely to be domestic, such as dealing with immigration and inflation. In these areas, US presidents have a decisive role, yet in foreign policy matters, decision-making can often be shaped primarily by the Pentagon, the State Department, and Congress.

History shows that US foreign policy adheres to fixed principles, such as prioritising its relationships with Europe and Japan, preventing the dominance of another power in the Middle East, and ensuring Israel's security. When it comes to the Middle East, Israeli considerations are paramount, so it is likely that Washington will continue trying to reshape the Palestinian issue across various dimensions, including Jerusalem, refugees, borders, and settlements.

Arab and international engagement with the Palestinian people, their leadership, and their cause is likely to be ignored in favour of Trump aligning with Israeli policies, despite Israel increasingly being seen around the world as a colonial, settler, racist state that commits acts of genocide. As a result, the next four years offer little hope, not least owing to the ongoing and unprecedented Palestinian catastrophe in Gaza. Ending that would at least be a start.