Iran wants Gaza and Lebanon ceasefire to stem allies' losses

"Enemy planes were prevented from entering the country's airspace ... and the attack caused limited damage," Iran's military joint staff said in a statement.

Conciliatory tone

While Iran's foreign ministry insisted that the regime was "entitled and obligated" to defend itself, the statement was more conciliatory in tone than previous declarations, saying that Tehran "recognises its responsibilities towards regional peace and security."

Iran's more measured response was certainly welcome news for US President Joe Biden, who said he hoped the Israeli action would be "the end" of the latest flare-up between Israel and Iran. For her part, Harris—who hopes to succeed Biden by winning the presidential poll on 5 November—said it was "the strong perspective of the United States that there must be de-escalation."

Whether that happens will depend to a large extent on the ability of Pezeshkian and other moderates in the Iranian leadership, such as foreign minister Abbas Araghchi, to overcome calls by more hardline supporters of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to take a more uncompromising line towards Israel.

In his first response to the attack, Khamenei insisted the "evil committed by the Zionist regime two nights ago should neither be downplayed nor exaggerated". He said Iran's power should be demonstrated to Israel, adding: "It is up to the authorities to determine how to convey the power and will of the Iranian people to the Israeli regime and to take actions that serve the interests of this nation and country."

There have even been calls by some Iranian hardliners to target US interests in the region in retaliation for the attacks. In an interview with Iran's conservative Nameh News website, hardline commentator Foad Izadi warned: "Attacks will not stop unless the United States realises that strikes on Iran could be costly. The Americans, as Iran's staunch adversaries, operate without ethical limitations. But if they sense that Israel's attacks on Iran will come at a high cost to the US, these strikes will cease."

Even so, all the indications point to the more moderate faction headed by Pezeshkian having the upper hand in the debate currently taking place in Tehran over how best to respond to the Israel attack, where the limitations of Iran's ability to mount an effective response to the Israelis is increasingly a key factor.

Major setbacks

Iran's key allies, such as Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, have suffered major setbacks at the hands of the Israelis during the past year.

According to the latest intelligence estimates, Hamas has lost at least 21 of the 24 combat battalions it had operating at the time of last year's October 7 attacks. In addition, many of its leaders, including Yahya Sinwar, have been killed during Israel's year-long offensive in Gaza.

It is a similar picture in Lebanon, where Israel's military offensive has targeted a number of Hezbollah's key missile bases while killing a number of senior Hezbollah leaders, including the movement's head, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli air strike against his Beirut headquarters in September.

Naim Qassem, the Lebanese-born cleric who has been appointed to succeed Nasrallah, has vowed to continue the fight against Israel, warning the Israelis in a recent speech that, "You will die of terror, your economy will collapse, you will not achieve your goals."

Even so, there is a growing awareness in Tehran, especially among moderates, that the longer the Israelis continue with their military offensive, the more damage they are likely to inflict against Iran's key allies, Hamas and Hezbollah. 

This has prompted speculation that Iran is seriously interested in backing a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon, especially after Iran's military issued a carefully worded statement which appeared to suggest a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon would trump any retaliatory strike on Israel.

From Tehran's perspective, a ceasefire would certainly help to stem the severe losses being suffered by its allies.