Leaders of a divided Cyprus meet, but resolution still far away

The latest round of contact came after Maria Angela Cuellar, the UN secretary-general's personal envoy on Cyprus, presented her final report to Guterres in July. It has not been made public, but she is reported to have concluded that previous models and methods for talks are outdated, and the two sides need to find a new basis for discussions.

Guterres likely saw a window of opportunity. It is too early to determine if his initiative will make progress, and it will certainly not be easy, with Cuellar pointing to the lack of agreement over whether any common ground can be found. The two sides have very different views on what any reconciliation process should look like and where it should lead.

Seeking recognition

According to the TRNC's Tatar, the federation model that has formed the basis for negotiations up to now is no longer valid. He has said the reality that the island is home to two separate states—and two separate peoples—must be recognised. Tatar has called for "three-D demands" for any future process, which refers to lifting sanctions on direct trade, direct flights, and direct contacts with the TRNC.

Greek Cypriots have widespread international recognition as a state and membership of the European Union. But the TRNC, even though it fulfils the prerequisites of statehood, is treated as a breakaway entity and subjected to isolation.

Read more: A Turkish 'ghost state' haunts the world's disparate response to a divided Cyprus

The TRNC has a population of around 380,000 and has maintained its existence with Turkey's support. At the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in New York last month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said that the federal solution had lost its validity and that it is now time to work on the basis of two separate peoples and two separate states on the island. He called on the international community to recognise the TRNC and to establish diplomatic and economic relations.

The Greek side has a very different view. It insists on the island's reunification based on a bilateral, bi-communal federation—a formula similar to the one rejected by the Greek Cypriots in the 2004 referendum. Christodoulides used his speech to the UN General Assembly to call for an end to "Turkey's occupation and violation of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of an EU member state". He spoke of his readiness to resume negotiations to reunify Cyprus as a "modern, viable European state, with no troops of occupation and no foreign guarantees."

The main problem is that Greek Cypriots do not consider Turkish Cypriots to be equal partners with equal rights but a minority. They also object to the guarantor system, which was enshrined in the 1960 Treaty and allowed Turkey's troops onto the island.

Strategic importance

Cyprus has an important geopolitical location in the eastern Mediterranean, giving it strategic significance and keeping international attention on the problems between its Greeks and Turks. Discoveries of natural gas deposits around the island as well as the wider crisis in the Middle East have also brought the island to the fore. Some Lebanese and Syrians have fled to the island to escape wars at home. For their part, the British have been the region's eyes and ears for decades, using military bases at Akrotiri and Dhekelia for various operations, including humanitarian aid.

The European Union is also directly involved in the island's politics, with the south a member of the bloc. Its admission of Cyprus, which represents only Greek Cypriots, means the EU has taken sides, even if it did so unwittingly. It lacks objectivity and impartiality in the dispute.

The EU's refusal to recognise the TRNC reinforces the North's international isolation. As noted by a high-level Turkish Cypriot official, this, in turn, undermines those in the TRNC who are willing to take steps toward a fair and viable settlement for the island's future.