Russia-Ukraine talks in the shadow of showstopping military action

In its own roadmap, Russia reportedly offered Ukraine a partial ceasefire covering certain sections of the frontline. Russia's condition for a total ceasefire is Ukraine's total troop withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and international recognition of the territories it has occupied since 2014, including Crimea.

Russia wants Western arms supplies and other military and intelligence support to Ukraine to cease, and for Ukraine to lift martial law and hold elections, before a peace deal is signed. Although it has agreed to prisoner exchanges, it has described Ukraine's claims about abducted children as false.

Progress made

There was some success. The warring parties agreed on the largest prisoner exchange since the start of the war, with Russia unilaterally handing over the bodies of 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers next week. Moscow and Kyiv will set up a joint commission for the exchange of seriously wounded soldiers without political decisions, and will organise the mutual exchange of all detained servicemen under the age of 25.

On the question of a ceasefire, Russia's proposal was for a limited ceasefire lasting just 2-3 days and only in certain areas. This was agreed to allow commanders to receive the bodies of dead soldiers. Although the two countries remain locked in battle, these small steps forward were welcomed by world leaders.

"It was a very good meeting," said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, adding that he would like to bring Putin and Zelensky together in Istanbul or Ankara, and possibly even include US President Donald Trump. The White House later said Trump could be amenable.

Operation Spiderweb

The Istanbul meeting took place just hours after Ukraine's audacious drone attacks on long-range bombers deep inside Russian territory destroyed several of the Russian air forces most important planes, including one of one eight command-and-control surveillance aircraft.

In many ways, it was Ukraine's most sensational blow since the beginning of the war in 2022. Other notable achievements include the sinking of the Moskva (the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet), the bombing of the Kerch bridge, the occupation of Russia's Kursk region, the bombing of Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Crimea, and the assassinations of Russian generals on Russian soil by assassins who got away.

The drone strikes against Russian bombers, nicknamed Operation Spiderweb, involved the smuggling of 117 drones into Russia, hidden in lorries and piloted remotely. Some of the airbases targeted are thousands of kilometres from Ukraine.

The Ukrainians say simple quadcopter drones carrying heavy payloads caused up to $7bn in damage, with more than a dozen planes destroyed entirely, and dozens more badly damaged, requiring time-consuming and specialist repairs which could be made all the more difficult since the planes are no longer produced.

The Russian Ministry of Defence said Ukraine carried out "terrorist attacks" in Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur, adding that most were "repelled". Zelensky said undercover agents who organised the attacks left Russia securely before the operation, which he greeted as an important success.

Putin's revenge

Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, and is unlikely to withdraw from any of it, given that it is Russia's forces that are slowly advancing, not Ukraine's. Still, with Operation Spiderweb having demonstrated Ukraine's ability to do serious damage to Russia, the Ukrainian delegation did not come to Istanbul as the fading side.

The second round of talks did not lead to a peace agreement, nor was it expected to. Still, they are widely considered to be a positive step in the right direction, but bigger decisions will inevitably be made at a more senior level. In the meantime, the two warring nations appear to be testing each other.

By reaching agreements on prisoners and the fallen, they show that they are giving diplomacy a chance, but when it comes to the core issues like territory and security guarantees, neither side looks ready to blink. And while the talks look set to continue, those who know Putin are sure that he will avenge Ukraine's humiliation. It is not of it, they say, but when.

Despite this, both sides are still expected to sit around the table again. What that yields will in part be determined by events on the battlefield, or, as Ukraine has just proven, thousands of kilometres from the battlefield.