Russia-Ukraine talks in the shadow of showstopping military action

Shortly after Ukrainian drones destroyed or damaged dozens of Russian long-range bombers, the two warring parties sat down on the Bosphorus, discussing peace for the second time in two weeks.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan sits between military chief Metin Gurak and intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin in the second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on 2 June 2025.
Murad Sezer/Reuters
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan sits between military chief Metin Gurak and intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin in the second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on 2 June 2025.

Russia-Ukraine talks in the shadow of showstopping military action

The second round of talks between Russia and Ukraine were held at the historic Çırağan Palace on the Bosphorus in Istanbul this week, a fortnight after the first meeting on 16 May.

The Russian delegation was headed by Vladimir Medinsky, adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the Ukrainian delegation was led by Defence Minister Rustam Umerov, whose family are from Crimea, the peninsula annexed by Russia.

Türkiye has been trying to mediate between Russia and Ukraine since 2022, when Russia first invaded, and has kept communication channels open with both sides. Last week, Fidan embarked on a round of shuttle diplomacy, meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv.

As he did for the first, Fidan chaired the second meeting between the two delegations, which lasted just over an hour. In it, he emphasised that a sustainable peace would be a solution to global issues such as energy, food, and transport security, adding that Türkiye is ready to help in a variety of ways.

Outlining positions

Moscow and Kyiv reportedly agreed to outline their positions before they met, so these could be used as the basis for discussions. Ukraine did so, but Russia delivered the document at the meeting itself, giving the Ukrainians no chance to consider the proposal and agree a response.

Murad Sezer/Reuters
Russian delegation head and presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky speaks to the press after a meeting at Ciragan Palace on the day of the second round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on 2 June 2025.

The key point in Ukraine’s roadmap to peace is an unconditional and general ceasefire as the first step for a peace deal. Other listed items include the exchange of prisoners, the return of children abducted by Russia, the release of all civilians, and the suggestion of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky at the end of the month. But Ukraine also said it would not abandon its policy of joining the European Union and the NATO security alliance, and called for security guarantees against any future Russian aggression.

Both sides agreed to outline their positions before they met. Ukraine did so, but Russia delivered the document at the meeting itself

In its own roadmap, Russia reportedly offered Ukraine a partial ceasefire covering certain sections of the frontline. Russia's condition for a total ceasefire is Ukraine's total troop withdrawal from Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and international recognition of the territories it has occupied since 2014, including Crimea.

Russia wants Western arms supplies and other military and intelligence support to Ukraine to cease, and for Ukraine to lift martial law and hold elections, before a peace deal is signed. Although it has agreed to prisoner exchanges, it has described Ukraine's claims about abducted children as false.

Progress made

There was some success. The warring parties agreed on the largest prisoner exchange since the start of the war, with Russia unilaterally handing over the bodies of 6,000 Ukrainian soldiers next week. Moscow and Kyiv will set up a joint commission for the exchange of seriously wounded soldiers without political decisions, and will organise the mutual exchange of all detained servicemen under the age of 25.

Cagla Gurdogan/Reuters
Deputy Chief of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Vadym Skibitskyi looks sceptical during talks with a Russian delegation at Ciragan Palace in Istanbul on 2 June 2025.

On the question of a ceasefire, Russia's proposal was for a limited ceasefire lasting just 2-3 days and only in certain areas. This was agreed to allow commanders to receive the bodies of dead soldiers. Although the two countries remain locked in battle, these small steps forward were welcomed by world leaders.

"It was a very good meeting," said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, adding that he would like to bring Putin and Zelensky together in Istanbul or Ankara, and possibly even include US President Donald Trump. The White House later said Trump could be amenable.

Operation Spiderweb

The Istanbul meeting took place just hours after Ukraine's audacious drone attacks on long-range bombers deep inside Russian territory destroyed several of the Russian air forces most important planes, including one of one eight command-and-control surveillance aircraft.

Capella Space/Reuters
Satellite image of the Belaya airfield, after a Ukrainian drone attack targeting Russian military airfields, amid Russia's ongoing invasion of Ukraine, in Irkutsk region, Russia, June 2, 2025.

In many ways, it was Ukraine's most sensational blow since the beginning of the war in 2022. Other notable achievements include the sinking of the Moskva (the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet), the bombing of the Kerch bridge, the occupation of Russia's Kursk region, the bombing of Russia's Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Crimea, and the assassinations of Russian generals on Russian soil by assassins who got away.

The drone strikes against Russian bombers, nicknamed Operation Spiderweb, involved the smuggling of 117 drones into Russia, hidden in lorries and piloted remotely. Some of the airbases targeted are thousands of kilometres from Ukraine.

The Istanbul meeting took place just hours after Ukraine's audacious drone attacks on long-range bombers stationed deep inside Russian territory

The Ukrainians say simple quadcopter drones carrying heavy payloads caused up to $7bn in damage, with more than a dozen planes destroyed entirely, and dozens more badly damaged, requiring time-consuming and specialist repairs which could be made all the more difficult since the planes are no longer produced.

The Russian Ministry of Defence said Ukraine carried out "terrorist attacks" in Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur, adding that most were "repelled". Zelensky said undercover agents who organised the attacks left Russia securely before the operation, which he greeted as an important success.

Putin's revenge

Russia currently occupies about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, and is unlikely to withdraw from any of it, given that it is Russia's forces that are slowly advancing, not Ukraine's. Still, with Operation Spiderweb having demonstrated Ukraine's ability to do serious damage to Russia, the Ukrainian delegation did not come to Istanbul as the fading side.

Ukrainian Security Service/AFP
This video grab taken from footage released by the Ukrainian Security Service on June 3, 2025, allegedly shows an explosion on the Kerch Bridge connecting Crimea with Russia.

The second round of talks did not lead to a peace agreement, nor was it expected to. Still, they are widely considered to be a positive step in the right direction, but bigger decisions will inevitably be made at a more senior level. In the meantime, the two warring nations appear to be testing each other.

By reaching agreements on prisoners and the fallen, they show that they are giving diplomacy a chance, but when it comes to the core issues like territory and security guarantees, neither side looks ready to blink. And while the talks look set to continue, those who know Putin are sure that he will avenge Ukraine's humiliation. It is not of it, they say, but when.

Despite this, both sides are still expected to sit around the table again. What that yields will in part be determined by events on the battlefield, or, as Ukraine has just proven, thousands of kilometres from the battlefield.

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