Ethiopia pushes Egypt into tight corner after Nile dam talks collapse

Damming the Nile

Damming the Nile is as scary as it is ominous for Egyptians, who have depended on the river for thousands of years.

Egypt's annual share of 55.5 billion cubic metres from the river satisfies only a fraction of the populous North African country's needs. In contrast, the actual water needs of the Egyptian people amount to more than 114 billion cubic metres annually.

The GERD, 145 meters high, with a reservoir covering 1,875 square kilometres — an area larger than the size of Greater London — will significantly trim the amount of water flowing to Egypt from the Blue Nile. 

Compounding Egypt's rampant water deficit, the dam, constructed around 30 kilometres south of Ethiopia's border with Sudan, will cause massive devastation to Egypt's farmland, imperil its water security and remarkably increase Egypt's dependence on food imports from other countries.

The gravity of these threats underscored Egypt's determination to reach a legally binding deal that guarantees that it would not sustain any significant harm due to its construction, filling or operation.

"This deal was very important to reach, especially with the Ethiopians not showing any sign of taking Egyptian concerns into consideration," Diaa al-Qousi, a former advisor to the minister of water resources, told Al Majalla.

Ethiopia moved ahead with the construction and the filling of the dam unilaterally in the absence of a deal, even as it continued to negotiate with Egypt and Sudan, opening the door for Egyptian accusations that Addis Ababa was only wasting time until the GERD was a fait accompli.

During this time, Cairo also tried to involve all international players in the dam issue, including the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, and the African Union, but to no avail.

Cairo vexed

The latest round of talks on the dam wrapped up in Addis Ababa on 19 December with no agreement, much to the exasperation of Egypt, which squarely placed the blame on Ethiopia for its failure and accused it of reneging on previously agreed-upon understanding.

Egypt went further and accused Ethiopia of disregarding its obligations under international law, adding that it reserved the right under international charters to defend its water source as a matter of national security in the event of harm.

It did not, however, state what type of action Egypt may take in case this harm happens.

Egyptian Minister of Water Resources, Hani Sweilam, reiterated the same warning a few days later in an interview with the Al Arabiya news channel.

"Ethiopia should practice caution when it undertakes moves that negatively affect Egyptian water security," the Egyptian minister said.

"Egyptian state institutions have a way to deal with the situation if this water security is affected," he added.

In March 2021, el-Sisi warned against harming Egypt's Nile River share, describing Egypt's water security as a 'red line'.

"Nobody can take a drop of Egypt's water," the Egyptian leader said. "Let those who want to do this make an attempt."

He even warned of instability in the region as a whole as a consequence.

All options on the table

The GERD is 94% complete and is expected to be fully operational by September 2024.

Nevertheless, the statement of the Ministry of Water Resources and el-Sisi's 2021 warning says the same thing: Egypt will not stand by idly if its water security is threatened.

Just how Egypt plans to safeguard its water rights in the event they are compromised remains unknown. The current war in Sudan has already weakened Egypt's negotiating stance, especially given that Cairo and Khartoum used to have a unified position on the dam, which demanded a legally binding deal that ensured that no significant harm would be caused to downstream states because of the dam.

Apart from shuddering at the prospect of the GERD blocking the flow of the water of the Nile to it, Egypt is afraid that the dam is part of a larger plan to turn the Blue Nile into an internal Ethiopian lake — especially if Addis Ababa constructs even more dams along the river in the future.

The Blue Nile, which feeds into the White Nile near Khartoum, contributes almost 85% of the water that flows into Egypt.

Egypt is expected to make a last-ditch attempt to raise the issue at the UN Security Council, which international lawyers expect a vote in Egypt's favour this time around.

"If Ethiopia does not abide by such a resolution, Egyptian authorities will have the legal right to take whatever action they see fit to protect Egypt's water security," international law professor Salah al-Tahawi told Al Majalla.