Iraq: Geography, politics, and the path forward

Geography has imposed a complex reality on Baghdad, one that has only intensified in recent times. But while geography imposes challenges, it can also present opportunities.

Iraq: Geography, politics, and the path forward

While international and regional power struggles for influence within Iraq have been commonplace for some time, escalating regional tensions have added urgency to solving the country's conundrum.

But what exactly does the future hold? This is a question that Baghdad’s leaders are currently grappling with. Iraq’s predicament is not unique but one that many nations caught in the crosshairs of geopolitics have had to endure. However, Iraq seems to be in a particularly precarious position lately, adding urgency to the quest for practical solutions.

In our September issue, we dissect Iraq’s domestic landscape along with the regional and global scene and draw threads between the three. Regional and global developments are key to understanding the situation in Iraq, and Al Majalla provides expert analyses on how this can shape the country’s present and future as well as the potential for further violence and turmoil in the Middle East.

More than two decades ago, the United States succeeded in toppling Saddam Hussein. However, its lack of vision for 'the day after' gave room for Iran to become the dominant player in Iraq. Now, Tehran views Iraq not only as a key pillar in its sphere of influence but also as a cornerstone in its national security strategy and proactive regional approach.

To a lesser extent, Turkey also sees Iraq as a stage for advancing its interests, addressing security concerns, and asserting its regional influence.

It is true that Arab countries preferred their neighbour not to be run by Saddam. But it is equally true that they didn't want the country to become a platform for hostile regional influences. As a result, they are trying to capitalise on any opportunity to build political, economic, and social bridges with Baghdad.

Wary of hostile regional influences, Arab states are trying to build political, economic, and social bridges with Baghdad

Governing a capital with such a rich history, situated between two once-great empires—Iran and Turkey—is no easy feat. It is equally daunting to serve as the eastern wall of Arab security.

Geography has imposed a complex reality on Baghdad, one that has only intensified in recent times. But while geography imposes challenges, it can also present opportunities. Decision-makers have the chance to position Iraq as a point of balance and convergence among its neighbours and competitors rather than allowing it to remain a battleground for regional dominance.

Fragile state

This choice becomes even more challenging when the state is fragile, with militias exerting influence across the country, their loyalties tied to forces beyond its borders. Making such a decision is undoubtedly painful when tensions exist between the central government and marginalised communities.

The gravest threat, however, is that the country could become a battleground for settling external scores, with the state's fragility tempting regional powers and local militias to drag Iraq into conflicts far beyond its capacity to endure.

Iraq's national interest must serve as the compass guiding its decisions. This is how it should be, but the harsh realities of the Middle East make this task more difficult with each passing day. In looking ahead, we turn our focus to the broader regional context and the larger challenges confronting the Middle East.

Since the 7 October attacks, the region has been on the brink of seismic change, and in recent weeks, tension has grown. Caught between two possible outcomes, the region now stands on the brink of a volcanic geopolitical eruption into a full-scale war that could be ignited by Iran's response to Israeli assassinations in the heart of Tehran unless de-escalation can come from a settlement beginning with a ceasefire in Gaza and southern Lebanon.

Geography has imposed grave challenges for Iraq, but it can also present opportunities.

In this context, we also explore the structure and composition of Hezbollah—an organisation deeply intertwined with the Iranian leadership and, at the same time, infiltrated by Israeli intelligence, which continues to target its leaders with deadly precision on a daily basis.

Further abroad, we also feature an in-depth biography of Saddam, the son of General Khalifa Haftar, whose influence in Libya is expanding politically, militarily, and economically—a reflection of the broader trajectory and challenges Libya has faced since the fall of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi.

We also highlight the worsening crisis in Sudan following the collapse of peace talks in Geneva, and on the global stage, we examine the rise of right-wing movements in Europe and the growing backlash against immigrants.

Out of this world

Even further abroad, we take a journey into space, exploring the international race to control and militarise it, with a particular focus on the competition between the US and China. This rivalry aims to secure dominance over the world's resources in the coming years and decades.

In science and technology, we present in-depth analyses of energy consumption—particularly electricity and oil—by artificial intelligence, a key player in the future. We also highlight the Arab role in medical innovations.

And finally, in culture, we explore regional and global trends and feature the revival of Saudi Arabia's ancient village of Al-Faw, drawing attention to its historic role in promoting religious tolerance within the Arabian Peninsula.

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