Going nowhere fast: Sudan’s army is neither winning nor talking

Angered by Hemedti's absence, the Sudanese Foreign Ministry intervened, which led to a further breakdown in the process.

Observers are perplexed by Al-Burhan's hardened stance on continuing the conflict, particularly as the war's expansion results in mounting casualties and violations. More critically, it appears as if the RSF is gaining ground, not the army.

Yet a closer examination shows that neither side benefits from prolonged fighting, given the severe economic challenges and the declining state management.

These have fuelled widespread dissatisfaction with Al-Burhan's government, a discontent that grows daily, as his promised victory remains elusive.

Jetting into Jeddah

Hopes had been placed on the 'Jeddah Platform,' a negotiation effort sponsored by Saudi Arabia and the United States notable for having produced a written and signed agreement between the army and the RSF, but neither side adhered to its terms.

While both warring generals say they are happy to meet around the table, this has not yet translated into joint action, although the RSF have publicly declared their readiness to send a delegation to Jeddah whenever called upon to do so.

Over time, the Platform has gone from a potential solution to an obstacle, impeding progress and contributing to an escalation in the conflict.

In recent weeks, the fighting has even entered the eastern states bordering Ethiopia, Eritrea, and the Red Sea, raising alarm amongst neighbours. This has led to a flurry of diplomatic activity in Port Sudan, the temporary seat of the Sudanese government.

Among the visitors was Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Waleed El-Khereiji, who arrived on 8 July, the first visit by a Saudi official to Sudan since the war began.

El-Khereiji carried a message from the Saudi leadership, emphasising the urgency of returning to the table in Jeddah, lest it be seen that the army is not willing to talk. Al-Burhan, in response, made promises of cooperation.

Shortly after El-Khereiji's departure, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed arrived, concerned that the war could reach his borders and exacerbate security tensions, particularly with the ongoing Tigray rebellion near Sudan.

Fearing the potential spillover of instability if the RSF takes over, he presented an urgent initiative calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities through negotiation. Others have sought to do likewise.

Cairo hosted Sudanese political opponents, Switzerland facilitated meetings between army and RSF delegations focused on the delivery of humanitarian aid, and the African Union hosted discussions on a post-war future.

Despite these efforts and numerous appeals, none have achieved a breakthrough. After the Saudi and Ethiopian dignitaries had left, Al-Burhan declared once again: "We continue the war."

Benefitting from conflict

On the battlefield, the Sudanese army are not winning, yet the circle of destruction, killing, and violations continues to expand. This leaves the Sudanese people asking: who benefits from the continuation of war?

Suspicion has fallen on remnants of former dictator Omar al-Bashir's regime, as well as the Muslim Brotherhood, who have positioned the war as a roadblock to the democratic transition and the Sudanese revolution that ousted them.

There is ample evidence to support this theory, beginning with their efforts to accuse their political opponents—those who led the revolution—of instigating the war through media and social media channels.

Additionally, they have participated in the conflict with their own brigades, including the Baraa bin Malik Brigades, portraying themselves as the saviours of the people from the oppression and violations of the RSF, despite their hand in nurturing this force.

Members of the old regime have also been actively working to associate the civilian forces that participated in their overthrow with the RSF.

Since the outbreak of the war, they have sought to include themselves in any post-war political arrangement, arguing that they cannot be excluded from Sudan's new reality.

These same individuals are accused of crimes under the Al-Bashir government by Washington and Brussels. Both have imposed sanctions, including on the Islamic Movement leader, Ali Karti.

These actions, along with the Muslim Brotherhood's efforts to obstruct initiatives and block army leaders from considering a ceasefire, strongly suggest that they are the primary beneficiaries of war.

Needing a victory

Speaking to Sudanese journalists, US Special Envoy to Sudan Tom Perlow said battlefield developments did not presage the army's participation in negotiations, hinting that it needed a military victory before engaging in talks.

It "needs to sit at the table with its head held high after adjusting the situation in the field," he said. However, since February 2024, the Sudanese army's situation has deteriorated further. The RSF has gained control of additional states and kept military garrisons under intense siege.

Military experts stress the need for a significant army victory, such as liberating the capital Khartoum, or the state of Gezira. Yet such a victory would now be increasingly complex and difficult.

That leaves the Sudanese people in a dire predicament: this catastrophic war continues until the army achieves a face-saving victory that, day-by-day, it is less likely to achieve.

Omar al-Bashir ruled alongside the Muslim Brotherhood, who monopolised political and economic life in Sudan for three decades, and since their ousting, they have been determined to regain control.

Such is their continued influence, the decision to stop the war and move towards peace is no longer solely in the hands of the army, and given that many senior military leaders are affiliated with it, al-Burhan must tread carefully.

A time for wisdom

Many Sudanese see the conflict as part of a wider effort to erode civic space and disrupt the democratic transition after the overthrow of al-Bashir. Yasser Arman, a Sudanese politician, spoke for millions when he said: "The revolution is too profound to be erased by the war."

He called on both the army and the RSF to prioritise wisdom and reason, reminding everyone that the war has inflicted immense suffering on the Sudanese people.

Reports suggest that the Sudanese army may be awaiting delivery of advanced weapons—including drones—that it believes will shift the current balance of power. If the tide turns, it may be more willing to engage in negotiations at the Jeddah Platform.

Until then, army leaders continue to tell their soldiers and supporters that they will not negotiations with the RSF. That may be for the public. Privately, the reality may differ.

The history of conflict suggests that this war will end around a table, eventually. How that end point is reached is an yet unknown.