Awaiting vengeance: expected responses from Iran and Russia

The assassinations demand a bigger reprisal, not least because Haniyeh was killed so soon after he met Iran's new President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Should Iran and its non-state proxy forces seek to demonstrate the gravity of two killings and the reassert the rules of engagement, then a response of considerable magnitude is likely.

Preparing for escalation

In Israel, there have been mounting concerns about the potential for a coordinated attack on Tel Aviv and other cities from the Houthis, Hezbollah, and Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria, with rockets or drones again being launched from Iran.

Most analysts see Israel's assassinations of Haniyeh in Tehran and Shukr in Beirut as a significant escalation, so expect that—when it comes—Iran's response will exceed the scope of its attack on the night of 13-14 April, which was telegraphed and intercepted.

Both Tel Aviv and Tehran are keen to re-establish the concept of deterrence, to put the other side off from mounting more provocative attacks, but this creates a critical problem for the current strategic calculus.

How can Iran retaliate without triggering an open, direct confrontation with Tel Aviv, while not giving Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the pretext he seeks to wage a full-scale war against Hezbollah in Lebanon?

Powers urge restraint

The recent increased deployment by the United States of aircraft carriers, military equipment, submarines, and troops to the region further complicates matters for Iran.

This show of force is intended to shield US assets and allies from attacks. US bases have already come under fire, resulting in casualties.

Following a recent conversation between US President Joe Biden and Netanyahu, the White House made it clear that this deployment also aims to "defend Israel".

Washington has warned Tehran to consider the broader geopolitical context and refrain from any escalation that would provoke an American response. Amid the mutual posturing, messages, and veiled threats, high-level diplomacy clearly has a role to play.

Sergei Shoigu, a former defence minister and ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin who now heads Russia's National Security Council, flew into Tehran for high-level discussions, urging Iran's leaders to show restraint.

Tehran, intent on exacting revenge against Tel Aviv, requested advanced missile systems and radars to fortify its airspace against potential Israeli incursions, amid talk of Iran acquiring Russia's Sukhoi-35 fighter jets.

Putin and Netanyahu

It is unlikely that Putin will supply Iran with weaponry it wants, since that could provoke his ally, Netanyahu. While he might offer a sophisticated defensive missile system, he would not want to give Iran any bombers it might deploy to strike Israel.

Putin will be aware that Russia's advanced S-400 and S-300 missile systems that were already deployed failed to intercept Israeli airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria.

Meanwhile, in February, Iran unveiled its own home-made air defence set-up.

This includes the Arman anti-ballistic missile system, to "simultaneously confront six targets at a distance of 120-180km", and the Azarakhsh low-altitude air defence system, to "identify and destroy targets up to a range of 50km with four ready-to-fire missiles".

Netanyahu has pointedly refused to oppose Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its subsequent annexation of eastern and southern regions.

He has also withheld military support from Kyiv, mindful of Moscow's influence in Tel Aviv (roughly one in nine Israelis speak Russian, owing to the huge Soviet diaspora).

Cost of embarrassment

Tehran, having provided drones to Moscow for use against Ukraine, is now indispensable to Russia's war effort. Yet suddenly, from a protracted and grinding conflict in Ukraine's east, Kyiv's forces struck deep into Russia.

In recent days, more information has filtered out about the incursion, namely that it involves "thousands" of Ukrainian soldiers, not the "hundreds" at first thought. It has caught the Kremlin off guard, with Moscow scrambling to reassign troops.

For Putin, the sight of tens of thousands of Russians fleeing their homes will be a red rag to a bull. Retaliation is inevitable. How much restraint will Putin show? In April, Iran's response to the consulate bombing was considered restrained by most observers.

Just as Ukraine's foray into Russia's Kursk region embarrasses Putin, so the recent assassinations embarrassed Khamenei. Iran still seeks to project itself as a regional power, while Russia considers itself a world power.

At a tense time for the world, these two tales of vengeance are unfolding. And, like so much else in global politics and diplomacy, intricate threads bind them together.