No easy options: Hamas enters into the politics of delusion

In terms of its internal politics, Hamas's leadership must confront the harsh reality imposed by Israel through this brutal war, rather than clinging to denial and obstinacy.

The new reality has also been shaped by the loss of thousands of members of Hamas and the weakening of its military capabilities.

Its control over its territory has declined, as has the base of its popular support, largely due to the immense suffering endured by Palestinians in Gaza during the war, in which Israel has deliberately destroyed everything - people, infrastructure, the natural environment, and even hope itself.

A wider war

The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh sent an important signal on what may lie ahead. The head of Hamas's politburo was killed while he was in Tehran.

Carrying out an attack of such a senior figure on Iranian soil shows that Israel, with the backing of the United States, is not interested in negotiating peace.

Instead, it is focused on continuing – and possibly expanding – the conflict to involve Iran and its regional allies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, where militias operate as extensions of the Iranian regime through the Quds Force.

Read more: Killing Hamas leader Haniyeh shows Israel's long arm can reach Iran

Israel seems intent on prolonging the war and increasing the scale of the destruction, showing little concern even for the 120 Israeli prisoners or hostages in Gaza.

There is a near-consensus in Israel on this approach. Disagreements between the Netanyahu government and the opposition are minor and mainly regard a potential ceasefire deal to release the Israeli prisoners before resuming conflict.

This suggests that placing any hope on internal Israeli disagreements is entirely misguided: it amounts to yet another illusion.

The same can be said for the demonstrations by the families of the prisoners, which have been limited and ineffective, as well as the anti-war protests in Western cities. Although these protests are significant, their impact needs time to materialise and depends on a more favourable Palestinian and Arab context.

Surprisingly, factions allied with Iran in the so-called Axis of Resistance fail to recognise – or choose to ignore – the profound deterioration of the Palestinian and Arab situation.

Even as their strategy overly depends on Israel being hit by an internal political crisis, these groups seem blind to international and regional conditions that increasingly favour Tel Aviv.

Even in the unlikely event of Hamas's leadership reaching a clear understanding of the new conditions it faces – and even if it  is then somehow able to get the Israelis out of Gaza – huge problems would remain.

Two difficult choices 

Hamas would find itself in an even more precarious and besieged environment than before, with 70% of Gaza's infrastructure destroyed and over 2mn Palestinians lacking essential resources, jobs, shelter, and food.

Israel aims to eliminate Hamas from the Palestinian political landscape and Gaza's government. It is prepared to make the Strip uninhabitable in the process, and so far, has kept the support of its international and regional allies.

Hamas lacks the external support to help Gaza overcome this existential crisis. Even Iran is unable to provide sufficient assistance.

This leaves Hamas with two difficult choices: retain power in Gaza under impossible conditions, placing a significant burden on the Palestinian population and making survival increasingly difficult and costly, or relinquish power to prevent Israel from making Gaza uninhabitable.

The latter might be seen as a dignified way to re-engage with the broader Palestinian political framework and attempt to reform it from within, despite its shortcomings.

This leads us to another critical issue concerning Hamas's alliances: its reliance on the Iranian regime and the illusion of a unified front in the Axis of Resistance.

Read more: Five scenarios for Gaza's 'day after'

The justification that these alliances are necessary because they offer support and aid is no longer tenable, as it has proven to be a miscalculation.

A faltering axis

From the outset, the Iranian regime distanced itself from Hamas's Al-Aqsa Flood operation on 7 October. Contributions from Hezbollah and other allies were limited to mere support for Hamas in Gaza. This did nothing to alleviate the severity of Israel's brutal war against the Palestinians in Gaza, nor did it restrain Israel's actions.

The Iranian regime is unwilling to sacrifice its own interests or its hold on power for the sake of Hamas or Palestine. It is not even prepared to jeopardise Hezbollah, which it considers a crucial asset for Iran's national security and a front-line defence for its regime.

The Syrian regime remains largely inactive or disengaged from this conflict, as if it is in a coma or caught up elsewhere.

Another issue with this so-called alliance is that it isolates Hamas within the Arab world, both in terms of government and society, and raises suspicions about its ties with militias that bolster Iran's influence in the Arab Levant and Yemen.

Furthermore, Israel – and the United States – have capitalised on Iranian policies, seeing them as contributing to the destabilisation and destruction of the Arab Levant.

It is also difficult to justify an alliance with Iran – and its proxy, Hezbollah in Lebanon – given their involvement in the killing and displacement of the Syrian people, as well as their domination of Iraq and Lebanon.

Hamas must reconsider its position within the Palestinian national movement by focusing on its role as a political and national liberation movement, regardless of its ideological background, rather than as a religious or Islamic entity or a governing authority.

This shift should include seeking integration into the broader Palestinian political framework, including the Palestinian Liberation Organisation, while reassessing military strategies.

Caught in a trap

Hamas should adopt realistic and sustainable approaches – ones which the Palestinian people can endure – and that can translate into tangible political gains.

Resistance, after all, is different from conventional warfare. It is not about armies liming up against armies, or the exchange of missile fire. Hamas fell into a trap which set up that kind of all-out conflict in Gaza. And Israel has used it as a pretext to  devastate Gaza.

Prior to its takeover of Gaza in 2007, Hamas positioned itself as a champion of Palestinian liberation, seeking to dismantle the "Zionist entity," lead the armed struggle, and resist the Oslo Accords.

But since assuming power, Hamas has largely deviated from these original intentions, despite continuing to frame its actions in its own terms.

Currently, Hamas advocates for a Palestinian state within the West Bank and Gaza, supports popular resistance, avoids targeting Israeli civilians, and expresses willingness for a long-term truce with Israel.

Nevertheless, Hamas's ability to adapt to the complex Palestinian reality and its external entanglements has been inconsistent. Hamas has struggled to reconcile its original ideology with the demands of governance.

As a result, some of the group's officials still enthusiastically invoke what they call the "balance of terror" and "shaking the ground under Israel," without fully grasping the true balance of power or the international, regional, and Arab realities that favour Israel. They also overlook the inherent weaknesses on the Palestinian side.

Regional upheaval

Hamas has often viewed Gaza as an isolated entity, disregarding the broader regional developments in the Arab East, such as the collapses in Iraq and Syria, and their impact on the Palestinian cause.

This perspective neglects how regional upheaval has strengthened Israel's position, granting it a strategic advantage that could last for decades.

Furthermore, Iran's inability to effectively respond to Israeli attacks on its sites and bases in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq – and even within its own borders  – undermines Hamas's reliance on Iranian support.

It is vital that Hamas' leadership takes all these factors into consideration as it navigates the new reality in place in Gaza and the implications of Israel's genocidal war on the Palestinian people.

There is a wider need for other groups to do the same, including Fatah and other leftist factions. It is essential for all parties to abandon stubbornness, engage in thorough evaluation and critique of their political and military strategies, and assess their relevance and effectiveness in the current Palestinian, Arab, and international contexts.

The focus should be on whether these strategies can realistically translate the sacrifices of the Palestinian people into tangible political achievements.

Hamas is constrained and contained. Concerns arise that it lacks a prepared exit plan or any withdrawal strategy from the war, that could thwart Israel's objectives under such devastating and unfavourable conditions.

All available options are difficult, costly, and tragic. There are fears that there is no way to prevent a new Nakba, or catastrophe, for the Palestinians, in a new reality so harsh, no other word seems to fit.