Israel's assault on Rafah comes with three clear messages

Israel is sending different messages to its citizens, the world and the region: it will put its security needs above all else whether that be the diktats of allies or international law

Israel's assault on Rafah comes with three clear messages

Israel has begun its invasion of Rafah. It seems that this could be the final battle in Israel's war on Gaza, and its high stakes beg tough questions for the region: continue "resistance" or pursue an alternative path toward a more stable future.

To this end, Israel has put out provocative videos of its assault. In one clip, an Israeli tank crushes a sign reading "I love Gaza". In another, a tank aims its canon at the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing. Other footage shows armoured vehicles brandishing massive Israeli flags roaming the crossing, shooting rounds of ammunition.

The videos coming out from the Palestinian side show the human cost of Israel's invasion: families fleeing, cramming all of their possessions into cars, trucks and donkey carts—they neither know where they are going nor what their future holds. These two drastically contrasting scenes convey clear messages to Israel's target audiences.

Three clear messages

First and foremost, Israel wants to send a message to its citizens that it has restored the deterrence it lost on 7 October, when Hamas militants stormed Israeli settlements after breaching the wall that encircles Gaza. The message is: This will never happen again.

But realistically, there will always be the prospect of another "shock", just like 7 October 2023, and before that, 6 October 1973, when the Syrian and Egyptian armies breached Israeli defences in Sinai and the Golan Heights.

Israel's second message is for the world. By aiming its tank at the border crossing with Egypt, Israel is showing that it places its security above all other considerations, whether that be its relations with its Arab neighbours or its standing on the international scene.

By aiming its tank at the border crossing with Egypt, Israel is showing that it places its security above its relations with its Arab neighbours or its standing on the international scene.

Even calls for restraint from Israel's closest ally, the United States, will come second to its own security needs. Israeli security will be determined by Israel alone, and its relations with the outside world will be run from behind the barrel of a gun.

The third message is intended for Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank—and for Lebanon, where Hezbollah operates. The images of families fleeing are a stark omen of the grim future that awaits anyone who challenges their approach to resolving the Palestinian issue. Israel wants to end its war with no room for Hamas or other militant groups to catch their breath. 

A vision of deterrence

Israel's Rafah operation—meticulously planned over several months, peppered with psychological warfare and political messages to stakeholders—embodies its vision for the region where deterrence lies firmly in its hands.

In this vision, Israel's adversaries—from Iran to Lebanon, the West Bank, Yemen, and Iraq—are neutralised fearing Israel's superior military abilities and the support it receives from its Western allies in Europe and America.

And even though the Israeli Prime Minister is unpopular at home because of his perceived failure to prevent the 7 October attack, he still thinks he will be able to weather the political storm and stay in power.

This is the message delivered by the Israeli tank that doesn't love Gaza. And while it cannot guarantee Israel's desired vision, the message is being sent loud and clear.

font change