Following the Gaza war, Hamas won't be the same. When the guns finally fall silent, we could see a rehabilitated Hamas, a new Israel, and the possible emergence of a 'new Middle East'. No single regional or international stakeholder will shape the outcome.
Beneath the surface lies a nuanced struggle between grassroots forces and proxies all orbiting the post-war landscape. None seek a return to the status quo of 6 October, and each player has a different understanding of the conditions that led up to October 7 and different priorities for the future.
The May issue of Al Majalla magazine features the future of Hamas after the 'day after' in Gaza as its cover story. Although Hamas and its Iranian ally started this current war, they won't be the only ones to have the final say. There are many options on the table for a rehabilitated Hamas, some of which have parallels in the history of the Palestinian armed struggle.
In the summer of 1982, Israeli forces encircled Yasser Arafat, Chairman of the Executive Committee of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, in Beirut.
Arafat pledged a six-month resistance, but a series of diplomatic manoeuvres, including Soviet counsel, American intervention, Israeli assaults, and Syrian negotiations, culminated in his expulsion from Beirut to Tunisia in August 1982. This followed Arafat's earlier exile from Jordan to Lebanon following Black September in 1970.
Our cover story includes documents detailing Arafat's final days in Beirut, leading to his expulsion in August 1982.
Arafat was a guest in both Jordan and Lebanon, whereas Hamas is deeply entrenched in the Gaza landscape. While Arafat's resilience was short-lived, lasting only a few months, Hamas has endured for over six months despite the widespread devastation and bloodshed.
Unlike the diverse leftist factions within the Liberation Organisation, Hamas represents an Islamic movement. Arafat's exile marked a diminishing Soviet influence globally, whereas Hamas's resilience mirrors the continued assertiveness of Iranian interests in the region.
Indeed, while there are notable differences between the experiences of Arafat and Hamas, there are also significant parallels—especially in the dynamics shaped by Israeli decisions, Western involvement, and the roles played by Arab states.
Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, and Mohammed Deif, the commander of the Al-Qassam Brigades, are forced into exile.
