Moscow's approach is nuanced, balancing its interests with those of its allies.
On the one hand, it seeks to keep Iran close. Tehran is strategically significant, particularly as Russia requires Iranian drones for its war in Ukraine.
On the other, Russia has good relations with Tel Aviv and would rather not compromise these. It thus seeks to preserve diplomatic ties and interests across different fronts.
Establishing deterrence
The dynamics of deterrence are crucial to understanding the events of recent weeks.
Just as Israeli air strikes in Syria and Lebanon aim to deter Iran from encroaching on Israel's northern border, so too Iran's drone and missile barrage will have conveyed a message to Israel that Iran will strike it directly if needs be.
Deterrence is especially important for Israel, whose citizens are still shaken by the ability of Hamas to launch a significant attack from Gaza on 7 October and the inability of Israel's intelligence and security services to predict it or defend it.
Yet, since Iran's drone and missile volley failed to hurt Israel, Iran showed itself incapable of effectively restoring its own deterrence against Israel.
At the same time, its armada only showcased Israel's vastly superior air defence capabilities, including its Iron Dome, David's Sling, and Arrow systems.
These can intercept planes, drones, or missiles at any speed and altitude.
Although largely symbolic, Iran's attack still represents an unprecedented challenge to the 'idea of Israel' and its perceived invulnerability, similar to the historical impact of previous Arab-Israeli conflicts in 1948, 1967, and 1973.
Israel's response
Israel's allies have urged it not to escalate tension, yet Tel Aviv is nevertheless likely to be considering several strategies.
One of these could be the targeting of Iran's regional proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and even Yemen.
Israel has a track record of attacking Iran-friendly militias, but this time it could opt for a more intensive and prolonged campaign against Iranian positions in these areas.
If it did, there could be an impact on regional stability and the balance of power in Iraq and surrounding areas. The role of the United States may also change.
Given that Iran's drone and missile barrage was a direct military attack against Israel, Netanyahu may consider that Israel now needs to initiate direct military attack against Iran in reply. This would raise the stakes significantly.
The extent to which America and other Western allies assist it in this will be critical to Tel Aviv's decision making.
At the very least, Israel would need US help. This could provoke Iran into retaliating against US interests.