The price of US presence — or absence — in the Middle East

In 2009, as US President Barack Obama came to power, there were 142,000 American troops in Iraq. He ordered their pull-out, declaring the US combat mission there "over". By the end of 2011, there were just a few thousand troops left.

In 2014, however, the US had to re-engage, after Islamic State (IS) militants overran much of Syria and Iraq, posting videos of its brutal methods, including the beheading of American hostages.

In Afghanistan, Obama initially increased American troop numbers, first by 17,000, then by another 30,000. By February 2013, there were 68,000 American forces in the country, 12 years after the US first hit back in retaliation for 9/11.

By 2021, however, the US was withdrawing from Afghanistan, too. This let the Taliban reclaim power. Despite having been trained and equipped by the US for 20 years, the Afghan national army dissolved within hours under Taliban challenge.

Yet America's withdrawal fit a bigger picture, one far removed from that photo of FDR and the Saudi king, who had both realised that they needed one another.

Exit stage-left?

Today, America is almost energy independent, and its primary challenge of the 21st century will come from China. Obama called it a "pivot" to East Asia. Crucially, though, it has not yet left the Middle East.

The US presence in the Gulf, Syria, and Iraq—where it has 30,000 troops, ground bases and naval assets—has taken on a new role: countering China's expansion, Russia's audacity, and the challenge of Iran and its militias.

Already an economic superpower, Beijing has its eyes on more than just trade. It has established a military base in Djibouti and is quietly building a presence elsewhere.

Moscow also has two military bases in western Syria and a growing presence in Africa. This typically begins when Russian mercenaries such as the Wagner Group are engaged by repressive regimes.

Tehran, by contrast, does not establish its own bases in foreign states, but rather grows, equips, and trains local militias, wielding its influence indirectly.

This strategy has paid off in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and the Palestinian territories.

Through the Houthis in Yemen, Iran now threatens international shipping in the Red Sea, while its proxies have hit US bases in Iraq and Syria. In return, senior Iranians have been killed by Israeli airstrikes in Damascus.

Impact of withdrawal

Iran wants the US to withdraw from the Middle East entirely. Will it? If it does, what will the impact be? These questions are both important and legitimate.

For this reason, Al Majalla has dedicated its cover story of the March edition to the topic. Although the questions seem straightforward, the answers are anything but.

There is a lot going on behind the scenes. US diplomats and army chiefs are working out what ground and naval presence they need in the region, then negotiating existing or pending strategic military agreements.

We analyse the thinking in Washington, ahead of the presidential election in November 2024.

Would an "ideological" Joe Biden take a different approach in his second term to his first? What will an "isolationist" Donald Trump do if he returns to the White House?

We also examine the calibrations in Beijing and Moscow ahead of a potential changing of the guard in Washington.

The view from the Middle East is considered, too, not least Iraq's stated aim: for the Americans to leave.

In the Iraqi capital, those who take their cues from Tehran may be ascendent. We contrast a US withdrawal as seen from Baghdad and Erbil.

For Damascus, Ankara, and the Kurds aligned with American forces east of the Euphrates River and in northwest Iraq, we consider what life would look like without US military forces in the neighbourhood.

For the Europeans, who recently announced their own Red Sea naval force aimed at "deterring" Iran rather than directly attacking its proxies, we ponder their strategic divergence from the US-UK mission, which has caused such waves.

Around the world

Below the waves, globally critical infrastructure in the form of cables and pipelines lie along ocean beds, potentially vulnerable to sabotage. We offer an overview.

Russian President Vladimir Putin enters the country's presidential elections this month confident of victory.

It will be more like a referendum on Ukraine for the Kremlin's latest tsar, who has now reigned supreme for a quarter of a century.

Across the pond, Putin will be hoping that his old 'friend' Donald Trump gets back into the White House. If he does, continued US backing for Ukraine will be very much at risk, something Kyiv is already well aware of.

In our March issue, we also feature another report that is more akin to a secondary cover story, coinciding with the holy month of Ramadan.

It looks at the role of the Arabic language across Europe, how it is sometimes exploited to propagate extremism, and the translation challenge of religious texts.

While translation is there to foster cultural understanding, we ask if it truly does bridge cultures, or inadvertently erects walls of isolation. Saudi writer Saeed Al-Suraihi delves into the narratives.

This being the March edition, we could not go to print without our very own tribute to International Women's Day, for which we interviewed several prominent figures.

Among the voices, a Saudi expert who has held leadership positions in the United Nations explores her perspective on success while an Iranian artist reflects on her relationship with art and her coveted homeland.