For decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has organised and supported militias dominated by members of the Arab countries’ Shiite Muslim communities. They did it in the name of resisting Israel — until the Arab uprising of 2011 and the subsequent turmoil in Syria, Iraq, and beyond.
During this period, the purity of Iranian-backed militias such as Lebanese Hezbollah was horribly tarnished when they said they killed fellow Arabs and Muslims while attempting to prop up Tehran’s allies, most notably Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.
This ultimately created the strategic and diplomatic space for Arab countries and Israel (and the United States) to expand the Camp David Accords into the Abraham Accords — realigning Arab and Israeli interests against Iran’s attempt to violently expand its influence in the region.
Then came the 7 October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel. While Iran had long supported 'resistance' groups to Israel like Hamas, initial reports indicated the attack’s timing and severity caught Tehran off guard. But much like its adversary, the United States, Iran did not want a wider regional war.
Measured escalation
But four months later, a closer look shows Iran is unfolding a much more measured and calculated escalation that now threatens to expand as Israel continues its assault on Gaza.
In the wake of the 7 October attack, and particularly after the deadly attack on Al Ahli Hospital on 17 October, Iranian-supported militia across the region have been attacking not only Israel but the United States as well.
This started with Hezbollah strikes across the Lebanon-Israeli frontier that have led to the evacuation of border communities on both sides, then daily strikes by Shiite militias against US forces in Syria and Iraq, and then Houthi missile and drone attacks and assaults on Red Sea shipping.
Attacks in all three theatres have expanded, with the only period of partial quiet in Iraq, Syria, and the Lebanon-Israel frontier coming during the week-long Gaza ceasefire. On its part, Yemen's Houthi fighters have continued their maritime attacks in the Red Sea unabated.
Read more: Iran and Israel face off on Middle East chessboard
By the count of my Washington Institute colleagues, hundreds of attacks along the Lebanon-Israeli frontier have led to the evacuation of thousands of Lebanese and Israelis from their homes.
Meanwhile, over 180 attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria have led to the death of three US service personnel, the injury of scores more, and at least 10 US counterstrikes.
Last week, an attack by the Iran-backed Kata'eb Hezbollah in Iraq killed three US soldiers at a base in Jordan. In response, the US attacked more than 80 targets in Iraq and Syria belonging to Iran-backed proxy groups and Tehran's Revolutionary Guard.
Finally, scores of Houthi attacks against Red Sea shipping have led the United States to launch some of the Biden administration’s largest air strikes to date.
