Netanyahu drags Israel into the abyss with Western support

On the ground, Hamas is estimated to have lost between 20-30% of its fighting force. But it nonetheless is capable of inflicting losses on Israeli soldiers. Last week, 24 were killed in a single day, sending shockwaves throughout Israeli society.

The mass displacement of Israelis from areas around Gaza and the northern part of the country, which is frequently targeted by Hezbollah rockets, also places a serious strain on the government.

Meanwhile, the impact of the war on Israel's economy is heavy, estimated so far at $60bn. The tens of thousands of reservists called in to fight have left shortages in the workforce.

Read more: Gaza war exacting huge price on Israel

Genocide allegations

And now, the country ostensibly established to give people safety after the worst genocide in history is facing charges of genocide itself in front of the rest of the world.

A preliminary decision of the International Court of Justice – announced shortly before International Holocaust Remembrance Day – means Israel must face these allegations despite its attempt to ignore them.

In the meantime, Netanyahu's extreme right-wing coalition partners continue to feed on the current war. Israel is turning Gaza into a wasteland, making it all but impossible to live there while suggesting people living there depart "voluntarily".

A dark abyss

The darkness Netanyahu and the far right are dragging Israel into does not just come from Gaza. They are also inciting hatred and fear in the occupied West Bank and Jerusalem, where hate-fuelled Jewish extremists, under the protection of Israeli forces, attack, harass and even kill Palestinians. 

Throughout all this, international diplomatic efforts to end the war and relieve Gazans of their suffering continue in various forms, alongside a bid to get Israeli hostages released.

There is also a sign of an indirect admission from Hamas of wrongdoing on 7 October. Its first account of the war in Gaza, in the form of a public report, includes a statement that the civilian deaths that day were primarily accidental and came amid confusion.

The main immediate parameters of any settlement would be a permanent ceasefire, the release of hostages and the provision of humanitarian assistance.

The next stage would involve a wider approach, through established talks, to move toward the ultimate objective for long-term peace: a two-state solution. In the interim, how Gaza would be governed and how Israel's security would be assured are critical points.

Israel's defiance of these moves is facilitated by the lack of meaningful international pressure over its continued aggression despite being faced with the strongest international criticism since its foundation in 1948.

However, Netanyahu can still boast about the continued support of many countries, including the US, Germany, Netherlands and the UK.

UNRWA allegations

Evidence presented by Israel has also boosted his morale that the international agency most active in Gaza, UNRWA, had staff who participated in the 7 October attacks using its vehicles. Several countries stopped funding UNWRA as a result. The International Court of Justice also fell short of demanding an immediate ceasefire.

Only a handful of countries have cut or suspended diplomatic relations with Israel since the war started. Jordan, Bahrain and Turkey have temporarily recalled their ambassadors. The United Arab Emirates has warned that "warm peace could eventually turn to cold peace" if Israel continues on its present course.

But throughout, the US continues to prevent any United Nations Security Council resolution critical of Israel from being passed.

This means that even as civilians are being killed in their thousands, there are no sanctions or even weapons embargoes in place against Israel. At the same time, other nations face such measures on much weaker grounds of justification.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, has made any advancement of relations between Riyadh and Tel Aviv conditional on a credible pathway to a Palestinian state. As important as this may be as a policy declaration, it is not enough by itself to stop Israel.

A vacuum in US politics

A strong reaction within Israel and a decisive US stance are the most likely elements to influence Netanyahu's policies and the war in Gaza.

President Joe Biden has been vocal in supporting a two-state solution and has voiced dissent about how Netanyahu conducts the war. But the US is not using its leverage to change Israel's actions. This has much to do with the upcoming critical US presidential elections in November.

Already facing tough competition from Donald Trump, Biden appears to be unsure which approach to the war in Gaza would better serve his election campaign.

Trump is dealing with the issue without getting too involved – other than expressing disapproval of the White House's handling of the war and saying that things will be different when he takes over.

That means the current state of affairs in Washington, at least for the time being, continues to work in favour of Netanyahu.