In a volatile Middle East, the US election seems a lifetime away

In response, the US and its allies have undertaken retaliatory measures, including targeted strikes and assassinations against Iranian proxies across Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Lebanon.

Despite these actions, Iranian attacks persist, spreading into the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Syria, and Pakistan. Most recently, and marking a very serious escalation, an Iranian-backed attack on a US military base in Jordan killed three soldiers. Biden has promised a strong response.

Iran's objectives

Beyond the realm of public rhetoric and propaganda, Iran's underlying objective is to exert pressure on the US, encouraging a withdrawal from both Iraq and Syria.

While Washington has begun negotiations with Baghdad to establish a "transitional phase" for the continued presence of the US-led coalition in Iraq, Iran's end goal is to get US troops to withdraw completely.

During his presidency, Biden continued to pursue his predecessor's (Barack Obama) strategic shift away from the Middle East and onto China.  However, the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel begrudgingly pulled him back into the region.

Iran is seemingly taking advantage of the window before Biden's departure to confront the Americans in the region. It calculates that Biden's military responses would be more predictable and rational than Trump's.

Essentially, Tehran is trying to establish a new geopolitical reality on the ground before Trump's return to the presidency. 

If it succeeds in securing a US withdrawal from Iraq and Syria, it will be a huge victory for Iran, which is trying to clear its strategic 'Eastern Gateway' from American presence.

This could, in turn, have a ripple effect on other key Iranian arenas across the region. With China's growing influence in the region — a key ally of Iran — Tehran would find itself in a stronger position to face an unpredictable Trump.

The Gaza factor

Israel's brutal war on Gaza is the main driver of regional escalation, which has manifested in a flurry of strikes exchanged between the US and Iranian-backed militias in the region.

Given the potential for disaster and a full-blown regional war, politicians and advisors have been scrambling to find a way out of the looming quagmire.

While Netanyahu seems to be hell-bent on escalation to avoid his own political demise and likely prosecution for corruption and possible role in the 7 October security failure, more level-headed politicians have been looking for ways to de-escalate.

To this end, the stagnant Israeli-Palestinian peace track has been given a new lease of life. It has become increasingly clear that Gaza's 'day after' will have a direct impact on the future of the region and its relationship with the United States.

Saudi Arabia understands that any potential agreement with the US on a beefed-up military pact, a civilian nuclear programme, and economic corridors cannot be achieved without the pursuit and eventual realisation of a Palestinian state.

There are still a few months to come up with a definitive framework to achieve this goal. However, a lot can happen before the US election, given the escalating violence across the region. 

For a region waiting with bated breath, November seems a lifetime away.