The 28 January attack by an Iranian-backed militia against American forces stationed at Tower 22 in northeast Jordan, which killed three US service personnel and injured over 30 more, marks a major escalation in the ongoing Gaza crisis.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq — the umbrella group of Iranian-supported Shiite militia in Iraq and Syria — immediately claimed the attack.
The statement — directly stating the Israeli offensive in Gaza as its reason — indicates that Iran and its proxies are attempting to force US President Biden into making a hard choice: pushing Israel into a ceasefire in Gaza or risking a sustained Iranian escalation in Iraq and Syria designed to drive US forces out of both countries.
Iranian militia attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria are hardly new, with Islamic Resistance in Iraq now claiming 178 attacks, nearly identical figures to those catalogued by my Washington Institute colleagues over the last few months.
Throughout the Gaza conflict, Iranian-backed militias have used an array of rocket and drone attacks against US bases in Iraq and Syria.
In reading Iranian intentions, rocket attacks were seen as more worrisome, as their lack of guidance systems increased the chance of unintended lethality, which in turn could lead to a strong US military response the militias were not ready for. Drones are more precise, allowing the militias to carry out attacks on US troops with less risk of unintended escalation.
The 28 January attacks changed this dynamic in a critical place at a critical moment in the US debate concerning the presence of US troops in Iraq and Syria.