Egypt was rattled by a controversial memorandum of understanding signed by Ethiopia and the breakaway Somali region of Somaliland earlier this month.
The Egyptian position is rooted in fears that the deal may negatively affect security in the Red Sea and stability in the Horn of Africa when it comes into full force in a few months.
The memorandum of understanding, signed on 1 January by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland President Muse Bihe Abdi, will give Ethiopia — a landlocked country of 120 million people — access to the Red Sea through the Port of Berbera, located in the north-western part of Somaliland and also offer 20 square kilometres of land for Ethiopia to build a military base.
The terms of the deal reward Ethiopia's pursuit of a foothold on the Red Sea and the re-establishment of its naval power, which has been a repeatedly stated goal of the prime minister in the past few years.
Eritrea's 1993 independence from Ethiopia forced it to disband its navy. In return for gaining a foothold on the Red Sea with a military base, Ethiopia pledged to recognise Somaliland, which has been acting as a de facto sovereign state for the past three decades, against the backdrop of Somalia's civil war.
In return, Ethiopia will also offer shares in its flagship carrier, Ethiopian Airlines, to Somaliland.
The Somaliland deal rewards Ethiopia's pursuit of a foothold on the Red Sea and the re-establishment of its naval power, which has been a repeatedly stated goal of the prime minister in the past few years.
A general view of Berbera Port and Bebera city on August 31, 2021.
Egyptian rejection
The agreement has drawn widespread condemnation from the United States, the European Union, the African Union, and China. On its part, Turkey expressed concern about the deal, affirming its commitment to Somalia's unity, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Al-Shabaab — a branch of al-Qaeda that has been battling the Somali government for control in different parts of Somalia — also rejected the deal and called it an 'Ethiopian crusader expansion'. The group vowed to fight back against future Ethiopian moves inside Somalia.
Commenting on the deal, Egypt called for respecting Somalia's sovereignty, expressed support for the Somali people's right to utilise their own resources and warned against measures that undermine stability in the Horn of Africa.
It also called on the African Union to respect member states' borders and territorial integrity.
On his part, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud reached out to a host of countries, with Egypt at the top of the list.
In his phone conversation with the Somali president on 2 January, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi confirmed that Somalia's security and stability were of utmost importance to Egypt.
Five days later, he sent a delegation to Mogadishu, where it met President Mohamud and delivered a message of support to Somalia.
Insult to injury
The Egyptian position on the Ethiopian move stems from fears in Egypt that it would further destabilise the Red Sea — a prime conduit to the Suez Canal and one of the most critical lifelines for the Egyptian economy.
A foothold in the Port of Berbera will put Ethiopia only 150 nautical miles away from Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.
Ethiopia will be the only non-Arab state to access the Red Sea besides Israel, which is connected to the sea, a semi-enclosed seawater inlet of the Indian Ocean, through the Gulf of Aqaba.
Mogadishu rejects the deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, Ethiopia's bellicose policies towards its neighbours and its expansionist ambitions.
Potential frictions between Ethiopia and Somalia raise fears in Cairo that the Red Sea is in for even more tensions in the future, which would further compound strains caused by attacks on vessels navigating Bab-el-Mandeb Strait by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen, observers in Cairo say.
"There are enough problems in the Red Sea already," Mohamed al-Shazli, a former assistant to the Egyptian foreign minister and Egypt's former ambassador to Sudan, told Al Majalla.
"The region does not need a new party to come and worsen its situation," he added.
Houthi attacks against vessels traversing through Bab-el-Mandeb Strait have caused several maritime lines to suspend travel along the Red Sea and divert their ships to the Cape of Good Hope around southern Africa.
An increase in Houthi attacks in the area in the future will translate into more Red Sea travel suspensions by maritime lines and, consequently, more losses for the Suez Canal — a vital maritime passageway between the Red Sea and the Mediterranean.
With $9.4bn in revenues in the fiscal year 2022/2023, the Suez Canal is Egypt's crucial foreign currency earner. It follows remittances from Egyptians in other countries, with the exports and the tourism sector being the country's largest sources of national income.
The Egyptian position on the Ethiopian move stems from fears in Egypt that it would further destabilise the Red Sea — a prime conduit to the Suez Canal and one of the most critical lifelines for the Egyptian economy.
Deep-seated scepticism
While President Mohamud ended up nullifying the aforementioned memorandum of understanding on 6 January, he will most likely move ahead with implementing the deal, hoping the possible Ethiopian recognition of its independence will convince other countries to follow suit.
Egypt has a foreign policy redline which explains its opposition to the deal. It has always opposed the break-up of states in the region and its continent.
This line is evident in Egyptian policies in Arab states falling victim to Arab Spring upheavals, including Syria and Libya. It is also manifest in Egyptian policies in Africa, where Cairo stood against state split-up in the continent on numerous occasions.
Egypt has been investing heavily in Somalia through its soft power, realising the importance of stability in this Horn of Africa state for the Red Sea and the Suez Canal region.
The canal was negatively affected by piracy off the coast of Somalia, which, as a problem, peaked in 2008 but kept shrivelling up until it finally disappeared in 2022.
The Egyptian army plays an influential role in rebuilding the Somali military, offering training to its officers and providing much-needed equipment.
Al-Azhar, the highest seat of Sunni Islamic learning, also maintains an active presence in Somalia through recurrent missions and by offering scholarships in Egypt for Somali students.
Egypt has been investing heavily in Somalia through its soft power, realising the importance of stability in this Horn of Africa state for the Red Sea and the Suez Canal region.
Nile dam woes
Nevertheless, there is another aspect to Egypt's distrust of Ethiopian moves in the continent. A massive hydroelectric dam constructed by Ethiopia over the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River, Egypt's primary source of fresh water, is at the centre of this mistrust.
A member of the Republican March Band poses for a photo before the ceremony for the inaugural energy production at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Guba, Ethiopia, on February 20, 2022.
The dam, which is in the final stages of construction, will significantly shrink Egypt's annual water share from the Nile and consequently threaten the Arab country's farmland and jeopardise its food security.
Egypt declared the failure of negotiations over the dam last month after accusing Ethiopia of rejecting all technical and legal solutions to safeguard Ethiopia's interests and the interests of downstream states, Egypt and Sudan.
Throughout 12 years of negotiation over the dam, Egypt tried to convince Ethiopia to sign a legally binding deal over its operation and filling its reservoir.
However, Ethiopian procrastination has convinced Egyptian negotiators that Addis Ababa is intent on damaging Egypt's water security. This heightens suspicions in Cairo regarding Ethiopia's other motives in the region.
"Ethiopia's expanding influence makes the scale tilt in its favour in the region," Rawya Tawfiq, an assistant professor of political science at Cairo University, told Al Majalla.
"This is why counterbalancing this expanding influence is of paramount importance to Egypt," she added.
