Palestine's fate hinges on Gaza outcome

Despite civil wars and economic challenges in some countries, there is an organised Israeli campaign to gain Western support by exerting pressure and offering incentives to neighbouring nations to accept the forced uprooting of their people and subjecting them to an uncertain future, including perilous journeys on "boats of death."

West Bank on the brink of explosion

Another looming concern is the potential earthquake in the West Bank. Amid the appalling scenes of violence in Gaza, the dire economic conditions, the Israeli blockade, and threats from settlers and their weapons, the situation in the West Bank is on the verge of an eruption of greater violence.

Should tensions escalate, the West Bank could also plunge into even more violence and suffering. It won't be long before internal divisions within the authority, security services, and Fatah become more apparent, especially as questions grow regarding the succession of PA President Mahmoud Abbas.

All of this poses an additional threat to Jordan, particularly as members of the current Israeli government appear to advocate for displacement and the disruption of Palestinian institutions. They see a 'historic opportunity' in what could become a 'new Nakba' and a 'second war of independence.

As tensions escalate in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, Israel is inevitably impacted by the shrapnel of conflict. This situation has triggered two significant developments.

Israel's domestic scene and regional implications

Firstly, Israel is expected to engage in a growing debate over the responsibility for the October 'surprise' and the failures in anticipating, responding to, and deterring the events.

The unity of purpose under the banner of 'existential danger' will face numerous tests as the bodies of soldiers arrive and questions arise about the fate of dozens of Hamas prisoners.

Secondly, Palestinian citizens of Israel, who constitute 20% of the population, face a new set of challenges.

Simultaneously, the expanding regional conflict raises pressing concerns. Despite attacks by Iran-affiliated organisations on US or Israeli interests in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon, uncertainty remains regarding Iran's decision to escalate into an 'all-out war' or open a front in southern Lebanon.

Multiple mediators have conveyed warnings to Tehran and Hezbollah. The United States has also deployed substantial military assets to the Mediterranean. It has responded by targeting Iranian organisations in Syria, coinciding with Israel's multiple bombings of airports in Damascus and Aleppo.

In other words, the United States has reasserted its presence in the Middle East despite previous intentions to withdraw.

This issue explores the United States' priorities in the region concerning Israel's security and highlights the differences in Hezbollah's status in 2023 compared to the 2006 war.

Expert writers have analysed these developments in depth, with the focal point being the situation on the ground in Gaza and what comes after. Israel's goals are known, and it enjoys Western support.

The assumption is that Hamas will be defeated militarily and dismantled organisationally.

Various suggestions are put forth for post-conflict scenarios, including the reconstruction of Gaza, the deployment of Arab police or monitoring forces, and the establishment of a governance structure which could include the Palestinian Authority, UN agencies, and local dignitaries.

In this issue, former US envoy James Jeffrey presents a vision for the 'day-after.'

In this edition, we delve into the human suffering in Gaza, the displaced populations, plans for reshaping the Middle East, hopes for peace to emerge from the rubble and the exchange of warnings and reassurances among key stakeholders.

Ultimately, history will be the judge of how the events of October 7 impacted the Palestinian cause and its people.