Politics

Six things to watch for as Israel ramps up its war on Gaza

There is a very real possibility of an uprising in the West Bank following a rise in settler violence resulting in more than 130 Palestinians killed.

Majalla/Agencies

From possible hostage exchanges to potential regional escalation, Al Majalla highlights six key areas to monitor as Israel's war on Gaza enters its fourth week.

Six things to watch for as Israel ramps up its war on Gaza

Ibrahim Hamidi

last update on 03 Nov 2023

The first negotiations are underway since the outbreak of war in Gaza.

They have already been productive. Agreement has been reached for foreign passport holders to leave Gaza via the Rafah crossing in exchange for incoming aid and the evacuation of wounded Palestinians. There are also ongoing talks over the release of hostages — particularly women and children.

As this complex conflict goes on, there are six key developments which are worth monitoring closely for their implications in Gaza, Israel and the broader Middle East region.

The factors are complex and even contradictory. No single entity has control over them. The outcomes that could follow are unclear. They depend on a series of inter-connected and overlapping variables.

But each one is likely to help determine what happens and should be closely watched by diplomats, analysts and politicians in the region and around the world.

Al Majalla lists them here, along with an analysis of the latest dynamics shaping each one amid the fast-changing situation on the ground.

1: Foreign nationals out of Gaza and hostage talks

The deal reached allowing foreign nationals and dual citizens to leave Gaza is the first major development. It aims to get 500 people out every day. The evacuation will be gradual and involve around 6,000 people in total.

In exchange, approximately 80 wounded individuals will be taken out of Gaza to an Egyptian field hospital near the Rafah crossing. Around 100 aid trucks will enter Gaza over 10 to 12 days, subject to conditions on the ground.

The deal also sets up temporary humanitarian truces in southern Gaza, even as hostilities continue in the north.

There are ongoing, secret talks over a potential deal over a prisoner exchange, also linked to a possible agreement to allow fuel via the Rafah crossing.

There are two prisoner-related proposals under consideration. One is comprehensive, involving the release of all of the 250 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and its allies in return for 6,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails. The other is for both sides to release the women and children they hold, which would cover about half of the captives detained by Hamas.

Discussions are detailed. Mediators have helped outline the criteria and order of steps needed for agreement. Hopes for a deal are high, despite the ongoing conflict, and come amid internal and international pressure on both sides for a breakthrough.

There are ongoing, secret talks over a potential deal over a prisoner exchange, also linked to a possible agreement to allow fuel via the Rafah crossing.

2: War and displacement

The Israeli military is in the second phase of its war on Gaza, commencing ground operations following over three weeks of air strikes.

It appears that the military objective is to divide Gaza, separating the north and south along the line of the Gaza Valley. There has been extensive damage to infrastructure, including medical facilities.

Already, the Palestinian death toll has approached 10,000 – with a significant number of children – and it is expected to increase as the conflict intensifies. Around 1.4 million Palestinians have been displaced inside Gaza.

The number of Israeli military fatalities has also risen, with 16 soldiers killed in one night this week. This, too, will increase.

Meanwhile, as the fighting spreads, more Palestinians are being pushed south towards Gaza's border with Egypt. Egypt refuses to open the border.

Left: Palestinians fleeing their homes in 1948 after the creation of the state of Israel. Right: Palestinians flee from northern Gaza to the south after the Israeli army issued an unprecedented evacuation warning on 13 October 2023

That will be a prominent topic at the extraordinary summit of the Arab League due on 11 November in Riyadh, just as it was at the last meeting in Cairo two weeks ago.

At the same time, Israel is seeking to build support for its ground operations with its allies in the West as the wave of displacement it is causing worsens.

A high-ranking Western official stated: "In the 2008 to 2009 conflict, the breach of the border wall with Sinai resulted in the departure of approximately 300,000 Palestinians for a brief period before their eventual return. There may be further incidents to compel people to leave Gaza and head towards Egypt."

3: The West Bank

Western officials are now asking when the situation in the West Bank will escalate rather than if it will happen.

Circumstances there are inching closer to breaking point, not least due to the distress caused by the scenes of violence and devastation in Gaza. Economic hardships imposed by the Israeli blockade are also getting worse. Threats from some Israeli settlers – who have distributed leaflets warning of a "second Nakba" – are contributing to rising tensions.

This leaflet was found on Palestinian cars in the West Bank.
It amounts to a declaration of war by settlers.
The following is my attempt at translating it:
(1/5)
"You wished for war, now expect the greatest Nakba.
To the people of the enemy in the [Jewish] Bank: https://t.co/DhR24xGz39
— مُحَمَّد (@PaliMarxist) October 26, 2023

So far,130 Palestinians have been killed and 2,000 arrested in the West Bank. Any initial escalation is likely to come with solidarity between the people there and officials from the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Fatah.

But as time passes, the differences between the PA, its security services, and Fatah are likely to surface, not least due to the growing uncertainty over who will succeed Mahmoud Abbas as the PA's president.

All these developments pose an additional threat to Jordan, particularly as the current Israeli government seeks to displace Palestinians and undermine their political structures.

This reduces the prospects of a two-state solution and a lasting peace settlement. Indeed, some members of the Israeli cabinet view the current situation as a "historic opportunity" to advance their right-wing, exclusionary objectives.

The rising tensions in the West Bank pose an additional threat to Jordan, particularly as the current Israeli government seeks to displace Palestinians and undermine their political structures.

4: Israel's internal politics

Israel had been experiencing bitter internal divisions well before the 7 October attacks. Mass protests erupted earlier this year in Israel against Netanyahu's plan to overhaul the country's judiciary.

Protesters with Israeli flags during a mass protest against the government's justice system reform plans in Tel Aviv, Israel, 25 March 2023.

Nevertheless, when the country faces what it sees as an existential threat, a sense of national unity prevails. But if the Gaza conflict spreads and the situation in the West Bank escalates while Israeli right-wing extremism continues to grow, there could be internal implications.

Palestinians living inside Israel make up 20% of the national population. They have been provoked to the point of uprising before. In May 2021, Palestinians inside Israel were ready for potentially violent clashes amid a wave of demonstrations and protests over conditions in Gaza.

5: Iran and wider regional politics

Iranian proxy groups in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon have all launched attacks targeting American or Israeli interests near them.

But the overall assessment of the action suggests that it is posturing toward the US amid diplomatic contact between the sides. Analysis also suggests Iran has been taking face-saving measures designed to placate its Sunni allies within Tehran's wider Axis of Resistance – especially Hamas – but without bringing the other allies into a wider war.

There does not appear to be a serious commitment to an all-out war on Israel, which would include an attack from southern Lebanon. Several intermediaries have stepped in to convey messages and warnings to Tehran and Hezbollah against that.

The US has deployed significant military forces off the coast of Lebanon and has hit Iranian-affiliated organisations in Syria.

Aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) in the Ionian Sea, part of the Mediterranean Sea, 04 October 2023.

Israel has also conducted multiple air strikes on airports in Damascus and Aleppo, adding to the complexities created by internal strife and economic challenges in both Syria and Lebanon.

Hezbollah is expected to find a way of combining triumphant rhetoric with cautious military action, which will not provoke all-out war. It may expand areas of conflict in Southern Lebanon while claiming the 7 October attacks amount to a historic turning point.

There does not appear to be a serious commitment to an all-out war on Israel, which would include an attack from southern Lebanon. Several intermediaries have stepped in to convey messages and warnings to Tehran and Hezbollah against that.

6: The future of Gaza – and Hamas

There is a prevailing expectation that Hamas will be militarily defeated. The organisation that has been in power in Gaza since 2007 could disintegrate as a result.

This has led to discussion about what lies further ahead for the Strip and its eventual reconstruction, which could involve the deployment of Arab police or monitoring forces and the establishment of an alternative government for Gaza. This could involve contributions from the PA and politicians aligned with Hamas.

Some US officials have proposed relocating Hamas leaders from Gaza.

A Western official said: "Once the negotiations regarding hostages and prisoner exchanges conclude, the dynamics will change, and there will be a slew of negotiations outside the borders of Gaza."

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